Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Ukraine to Block Russian Aid Trucks as It Tightens Noose Around Rebels. A convoy Russia says is loaded with humanitarian assistance for rebel-held areas of Ukraine headed for the border, as the government in Kiev set conditions for letting the aid in and the Red Cross demanded more details. Russia’s government said 280 trucks with 2,000 metric tons of donated food, medicine and water left Moscow yesterday and would proceed into Ukraine under the auspices of the Geneva-based International Committee of the Red Cross. Ukraine expressed fears the convoy is carrying military equipment to aid the pro-Russian separatists
  • Iran Joins U.S. in Backing Replacement for Iraq’s Maliki. Iran endorsed premier-designate Haidar al-Abadi to lead neighboring Iraq, leaving current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki without his strongest international backer as he continued to defy calls to step down. Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Council, said yesterday in Tehran that he congratulates Abadi on his selection as the next prime minister, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported. The explicit embrace of Abadi was a step beyond an earlier Iranian statement approving of Iraq’s “political process.” 
  • China Credit Gauge Plunges as Expansion in Money Supply Slows. China’s broadest measure of new credit unexpectedly plunged to the lowest level since the global financial crisis, adding risks to economic growth already headed for the weakest annual pace in 24 years. Aggregate financing was 273.1 billion yuan ($44.3 billion) in July, the People’s Bank of China said today in Beijing, compared with the 1.5 trillion yuan median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. New local-currency loans of 385.2 billion yuan were half of projections, while M2 money supply grew a less-than-anticipated 13.5 percent from a year earlier.
  • Asia Stocks Fluctuate on Earnings, Japan Economic Data. Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as investors weighed earnings reports and data showing Japan’s economy shrank the most since 2011. Trend Micro Inc. fell 1.1 percent in Tokyo after the maker of anti-virus software reported results. CSL Ltd., the world’s second-biggest maker of blood-derived therapies, rose 2.8 percent in Sydney after reporting an increase in annual profit. Bank of Queensland Ltd. slid 1.3 percent after the Australian lender said its chief executive officer resigned. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) was little changed at 146.59 as of 9:44 a.m. in Tokyo after rising as much as 0.1 percent and falling 0.2 percent.
  • JPMorgan(JPM) Joins Goldman(GS) in Designing Derivatives for a New Generation. Derivatives that helped inflate the 2007 credit bubble are being remade for a new generation. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is offering a swap contract tied to a speculative-grade loan index that makes it easier for investors to wager on the debt. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is planning as much as 10 billion euros ($13.4 billion) of structured investments that bundle debt into top-rated securities, while ProShares last week started offering exchange-traded funds backed by credit-default swaps on company debt. Wall Street is starting to return to the financial innovation that helped extend the debt rally seven years ago before exacerbating the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Wall Street Journal:
  • U.S. Weighs Military Rescue Mission for Yazidi Refugees. Proposal Under Development Could Put Americans in Direct Confrontation with Islamic State Militants. The U.S. is weighing a military mission in Iraq to rescue thousands of Yazidi refugees, a move that risks putting American forces in direct confrontation with Sunni fighters for the Islamic State. The proposal is still under development and hasn't been approved by President Barack Obama. U.S. officials said the rescue mission is one of many options the U.S. military is weighing after dropping food and water to dying... 
Fox News:
  • Kurdish fighters hold off Islamic State, await more help from US, Baghdad. Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq are desperate for arms from Baghdad or even the U.S. to help fend off an onslaught from Islamic militants that may be aimed at creating a corridor for jihadist reinforcements from Turkey. Despite U.S. air strikes aimed at fighters from Islamic State, the militant group formerly known as ISIS, Kurdish fighters known as Peshmerga say they remain under sustained attack on multiple fronts. Rumors of weapons and ammo en route from Baghdad and the U.S. are rife, yet a number of sources confirm they have not yet been seen.
CNBC: 
  • White House loosens restrictions on lobbyists. President Barack Obama is loosening restrictions on lobbyists who want to serve on federal advisory boards, a White House official said on Tuesday, a setback to the president's efforts to tamp down special interest influence in Washington. Obama came to office pledging to curtail the sway of lobbyists and banned lobbyists from serving on such panels, which guide government policy on a range of topics ranging from cancer to towing safety. 
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Shanghai Securities News:
  • China Should Move on Property Tax, PBOC Academic Writes. China should adopt a property tax as soon as possible, Wang Yong, professor at PBOC's Zhengzhou training institute, writes in an article.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 -.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 75.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.18%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.01%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (DE)/2.20
  • (WLH)/.32
  • (M)/.86
  • (NTAP)/.57
  • (CSCO)/.53
  • (RMAX)/.37
  • (XONE)/-.15 
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Retail Sales Advance for July are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June.
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto for July are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in June.
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for July are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in June.
10:00 am EST
  • Business Inventories for June are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in May.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,577,780 barrels versus a -1,756,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,044,440 barrels versus a -4,387,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate Supplies are estimated to rise by +88,890 barrels versus a -1,798,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.55% versus a -1.1% decline the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Dudley speaking, Fed's Rosengren speaking, Eurozone Industrial Production report, China Retail Sales/Industrial Production, 10Y $24B T-Note Auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the Canaccord Growth Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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