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Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:41 PM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Hong Kong Leader Leung Jeered by Democracy Protesters. Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying was jeered by pro-democracy demonstrators at a ceremony to hoist the Chinese flag as the city entered the sixth day of protests seeking free elections. Leung arrived by boat at Golden Bauhinia Square to mark the 65th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The site is near the main protests in Admiralty, where organizers estimated more than 100,000 people gathered last night to demand Leung step aside and China drop plans to vet candidates in a leadership election planned for 2017.
  • Yahoo(YHOO) Restricted in China as Hong Kong Protests Spur New Control. Users trying to access Yahoo! Inc.’s (YHOO) main website from mainland China faced disrupted service yesterday as the government sought to restrict the flow of information amid student-led protests in Hong Kong. The www.yahoo.com site was inaccessible in some parts of the country, according to Greatfire.org, a group that monitors Internet censorship. The pattern suggested a “man-in-the-middle attack,” in which an attacker intercepts data that Internet users exchange with Yahoo’s servers, the group said.
  • Putin Reserve Rubles Vanish in Crimea Grab. After proclaiming in 2007 that the ruble was poised to become a haven for global investors, the Russian leader has watched it fade, a victim of his nation’s stagnating economy since the land grab in Ukraine. Now so much money is leaving Russia that its central bank is considering temporary capital controls, according to two officials with direct knowledge of the discussions. 
  • French Policy Stupor Sends Bearish Equity Bets Soaring. French stocks have beaten euro-area stocks for six years. Options traders are betting 2014 will be different. With a budget deficit poised to rise and economic growth running at half the region’s rate, investor sentiment on the CAC 40 Index (CAC) is deteriorating. Options protecting against swings in the equity gauge cost the most since April 2013 relative to the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 
  • China Factory Gauge Unchanged as Manufacturing Subdued. China’s manufacturing stayed subdued last month as an official gauge was unchanged, with the world’s second-largest economy weighed down by a property slump. The government’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (CPMINDX) was at 51.1 in September, the same as August’s reading and compared with the 51.0 median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Readings above 50 signal expansion.
  • Sydney Homes Costing More Than New York Spurs RBA Review. To see why Australia’s central bank has shifted its stance on home-lending curbs, look no further than Sydney’s inner city where a one-bedroom apartment sold at the weekend for 35 percent more than its last price in 2012. The 54-square-meter (581-square-foot) property in Surry Hills was purchased by an investor for A$647,000 ($565,931), said Con Fotaras, a sales consultant at Belle Property Surry Hills who brokered the transaction. “It’s really hard to put a price on a property at the moment,” he said of a Sydney market where the median home price is higher than in New York.
  • Rajan Warns Ultra-Low Rates May Distort With No Benefits. Indian central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan warned that near-zero interest rates in developed markets may be distorting asset prices without creating any real gain in economic activity. “We have had ultra-low interest rates for close to six years, and at some point you have dug a hole so deep in terms of asset prices that any attempt to get out of this has an immediate effect on asset prices,” Rajan said in an interview with Bloomberg TV India. While that may be worth the price to spur the economy, if it doesn’t respond “then you may have incurred the cost of distorted asset prices without the gain of real activity.” The debate remains inconclusive, he said.
  • Asian Stock Index Retreats on U.S. Confidence, Hong Kong. Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark index heading for a fourth day of losses, after consumer confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly declined and Hong Kong braced for bigger protests as Chinese holidays started. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) slid 0.1 percent to 140.20 as of 9:02 a.m. in Japan after retreating to a four-month low yesterday.
  • Platinum Slides to 5-Year Low as Demand Wanes After Strike Ends. Platinum sank to the lowest level since 2009 as a surge in the dollar curbed investor interest, extending the first quarterly loss this year spurred by the resumption of output in South Africa after a strike. Gold held losses near a nine-month low. The metal for immediate delivery fell as much as 1.2 percent to $1,285.50 an ounce, the lowest price since Oct. 5, 2009, extending a retreat from a 10-month high of $1,519.68 in July. It traded at $1,287 by 8:34 a.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.
  • Rising U.S. Crude Exports Move Closer to 1957 Record. U.S. oil exports, which in July reached the highest level since 1957, are set to climb to a record by the end of 2014 as producers find ways around a four-decade restriction on crude leaving the country. The U.S. sent 401,000 barrels a day abroad in July, 54,000 shy of the record set in March 1957, according to data compiled by the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical unit. While Canada accounted for 93 percent of the shipments, Italy, Singapore and Switzerland also took U.S. oil. Coupled with Alaskan oil bound for Asia, total U.S. exports will reach 1 million barrels a day by the middle of 2015, according to Citigroup Inc. (C)
  • Mosquito Virus That Walloped Caribbean Spreads in U.S. A mosquito-borne virus that can cause debilitating joint pain lasting for years has spread to the continental U.S. after infecting hundreds of thousands of people in the Caribbean and Central America. The virus is called Chikungunya, an African name meaning “to become contorted.” While the illness, first identified in Tanzania in 1952, has long bedeviled Africa and Asia, the only recorded cases in the U.S. before July involved patients who contracted the virus abroad.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Ukraine Forces Repel Two Fresh Assaults on Donetsk's Airport. Airport Has Become Center of Battles in Recent Days Despite Sept. 5 Truce. Ukrainian forces repelled two fresh assaults by pro-Russia rebels on the airport in the eastern city of Donetsk on Tuesday, a military spokesman said, as fighting for the strategic site showed no sign of ending despite a cease-fire signed nearly a month ago. European Union diplomats, meanwhile, decided to keep sanctions on Russia in place while the truce deal is still being implemented. The spokesman, Col....
  • Italy's Economic Woes Highlight Dilemma for European Central Bank. Weak Eurozone Inflation, Falling Prices in Italy Put Pressure on ECB to Act.
  • Brazil Leader Regains Edge in Election Polls. Two new electoral polls show Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff widening her lead over her main challenger in a likely second-round runoff, surveys that disappointed many investors who hope for the incumbent's ouster. The leader would get 49% of the vote in a head-to-head showdown with Socialist Party candidate Marina Silva in late October, said a survey released Tuesday by polling firm Datafolha. Ms. Silva would capture...
  • SEC Grants Citigroup Waivers, Easing Hedge-Fund Curbs. Restrictions Would Have Crimped Some Banking, Including Selling Hedge-Fund Investments to Individuals.
Fox News:
  • CDC confirms first case of Ebola in US. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed on Tuesday that a patient being treated at a Dallas hospital has tested positive for Ebola, the first case diagnosed in the United States. The patient left Liberia on September 19 and arrived in the United States on September 20, CDC director, Dr. Tom Frieden told reporters at a press conference Tuesday. It’s the first patient to be diagnosed with this particular strain of Ebola outside of Africa.
MarketWatch.com:
  • U.S. Ebola case boosts drug makers working on treatments.
Zero Hedge:
  • CDC Confirms First Ebola Case Diagnosed In The US, In Dallas Hospital - Press Conference Live Feed. (video)
  • What Just Happened In Today's "Crazy" And Biggest Ever "Window-Dressing" Reverse Repo? (graph)
  • Investors Are Too Comfortable In The Fed's Win-Win Conditions For Taking Risk.
  • "Russia Could Ditch Dollar In 2-3 Years"; Deputy PM Warns Nuclear Subs "Could Reach Any Country On Any Continent".
  • Small Caps Suffer Worst Quarter In 3 Years; Bonds Leading Year-To-Date. (graph)
  • Rick Santelli Slams Central Bank Intervention For "Taking The Voters Out Of The Game". (video)
  • More Lies: Watchdog Finds Government "Greatly Exaggerated" Success In Funding Small Businesses Last Year.
  • "If Something Rattles This Ponzi Scheme, Life In America Will Change Overnight".
Business Insider: 
  • The FCC Might Ban Broadcasters From Saying The 'Redskins' Team Name.
  • JP Morgan(JPM) Is About To Face An Enormous Class Action Lawsuit By Investors.
Reuters:
  • Mario Draghi to push ECB to buy Greek, Cypriot 'junk' loans: FT.
Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.9Brazil cuts 2014 GDP growth forecast, keeps fiscal goal
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.0 -2.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 71.5 -1.75 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.36%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.08%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (AYI)/1.22
  • (ESI)/.72
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for September is estimated to rise to 205K versus 204K in August. 
9:45 am EST
  • Final US Manufacturing PMI for September is estimated at 57.9 versus a prior estimate of 57.9.
10:00 am EST
  • ISM Manufacturing for September is estimated to fall to 58.5 versus 59.0 in August.
  • ISM Prices Paid for September is estimated to fall to 57.0 versus 58.0 in August.
  • Construction Spending for August is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.8% gain in July.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +925,000 barrels versus a -4,273,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline inventories are estimated to fall by -661,110 barrels versus a -414,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -88,890 barrels versus a +823,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.73% versus a +.4% gain the prior week.
Afternoon:
  • Total Vehicle Sales for September are estimated to fall to 16.8M versus 17.45M in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (ADSK) investor day, (GM) business conference call and the (CP) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
0 comments

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Global Growth Fears, Technical Selling, Energy/Hospital Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:24 PM
Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.07 +.56%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.59 -.30%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.16 -.49%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.91 +2.89%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 72.0 -20.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.14 +29.55%
  • NYSE Arms 1.22 -31.07% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.59 -3.56%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.42 -6.13%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.17 -.89%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 71.42 -2.45%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 285.87 +1.92%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 318.07 +2.19%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 22.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.50 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 192.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $77.50/Metric Tonne -.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.90 -7.0 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.30 -6.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97 +2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +22 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -30 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
0 comments

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 3:01 PM
Bloomberg:
  • Russia Weighs Capital Controls in Case Net Outflows Intensify. Russia’s central bank is weighing the introduction of temporary capital controls if the flow of money out of the country intensifies, according to two officials with direct knowledge of the discussions. Such measures would be preventative and used only if net outflows rise significantly, the people said, who asked not to be identified because no decision has been made. They didn’t give a timeline or a level that may force such a move, saying they are looking at all possible scenarios. The ruble weakened to a record low today, breaching the level where the regulator steps in to support the currency.
  • Russia Loan Market Shut Down by Sanctions Squeeze Funding. Russian companies are facing a squeeze in funding as sanctions targeting industries smother lending to all borrowers, including those that aren’t blacklisted. “As long as those sanctions measures remain in force, one anticipates there will be very little international lending,” Philip Hanson, an associate fellow at the Chatham House research group in London, said yesterday by telephone. “They’d rather just play safe and avoid the risk.” Syndicated loans plunged 53 percent this quarter from a year earlier to $2.68 billion, the lowest level in at least five years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Coal miner Siberian Anthracite’s $250 million deal was the only international one signed this month, the smallest number for any September since at least 2008.
  • Oops Japan Did It Again? Sales-Tax Spurs Recession Debate. Weak industrial production data from Japan today raises concern that the world’s third-largest economy may be back in recession, challenging Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s growth strategy. Output -- a key component of the Coincident Index (JNCICCOI) that’s used by the Cabinet Office to determine peaks and troughs in the business cycle -- unexpectedly fell in August. It’s now dropped in three of the five months since an increase in the sales tax in April. 
  • German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises as Risks Increase. German unemployment unexpectedly rose for a second month as seasonal factors combined with economic risks from the Ukraine crisis to a faltering euro-area recovery. The number of people out of work climbed a seasonally adjusted 12,000 to 2.92 million in September, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast a decline of 2,000, according to the median of 27 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
  • Commodities Head for Biggest Quarterly Loss Since 2008. Corn futures tumbled to a five-year low, gold is the cheapest since January and copper extended this year’s decline as raw materials headed for their worst quarter since 2008. The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell as much as 1.4 percent today, the biggest intraday loss since June 2013. U.S. corn inventories before the start of this year’s harvest were bigger than analysts forecast, the government said today. Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded products are near the lowest in five years amid waning investor demand.
  • Euro’s Worst Quarter Since 2010 Leaves It at Two-Year Low. The euro dropped to the lowest level in two years against the dollar as slowing inflation boosted the case for the European Central Bank to add further monetary stimulus to avert deflation. The 18-nation currency headed for its worst quarter since 2010 amid the ECB’s moves to swell its balance sheet and cut borrowing costs to spur growth. Russia’s ruble slumped after Bloomberg News reported the central bank is weighing capital controls, and the Canadian dollar weakened as the nation’s economy stalled. The U.S. dollar has climbed this quarter as the Federal Reserve considers raising interest rates.
ZeroHedge: 
  • Russia Activates Air Defense Missile System "To Guard Its Southern Frontiers".
  • Retail Investors Pile Into Stocks Amid "Malign, Unthinking Mental Slavery".
  • Why Europe's Doomsayers Are Right, In One Chart. (graph)
  • Is the Stock Market Top In?
  • Hong Kong Protesters Give Wednesday Deadline For Reform As Chinese Army Watches From Above.
  • Commodities Are Crashing Amid Stock-Bond Disconnect Deja Vu. (graph)
  • Did The Winter War Just Begin? Russian Gas Supplies To Europe Plunge 15%, Ukraine Transit Slashed 54%.
  • America's "All Important" Housing Market Flashing Red After Bad Data Double Whammy. (graph)
  • Consumer Confidence Plunges, Biggest Miss Since Jan 2012. (graph)
  • Chicago PMI Misses As New Orders & Production Slump. (graph)
Business Insider:
  • OIL CRASHES.
  • A Major Syrian Kurdish City Is About To Fall To ISIS — And A Massacre Could Follow.
  • BREMMER: 'We’re Likely To See Violence' If Hong Kong Protests Continue.
  • EBay(EBAY) Shares Explode Higher After PayPal Spinoff News.
@fxmacro:
  • Households now own 29% of IG and HY up from 15% in 2006. (graph)
Reuters:
  • Global stocks head for worst quarter since euro crisis, dollar soars. On a broader scale, MSCI's 45-country All World stock index, was on course for a drop of almost 3 percent on the month and its biggest quarterly fall since Q2 2012, when the euro zone's debt crisis was at its most intense.
Telegraph: 
  • Europe's €500bn money funds risk AAA downgrade if they 'break the buck'. Negative interest rates in Europe are causing havoc for the money market industry, threatening its long-term survival. 
0 comments

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:00 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -1.12%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Hospitals -2.24% 2) Gold & Silver -2.21% 3) Alt Energy -1.90%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • PGP, WAC, PDFS, FDUS, WPPGY, CNW, DWA, THRM, ST, LANC, BWA, AMBA, TEL, USLV, AGIO, WTI, DLPH, HTWR, MGA, IRM, SGEN PNK, LPL, ALV, AAOI, ELGX, HAR, CAR and WAC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DHR 2) ZQK 3) FSL 4) LYB 5) F
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TEL 2) MOS 3) CHTR 4) THRM 5) ADBE
Charts:
  • ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
  • Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
0 comments

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:44 AM
Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.17%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware +1.04% 2) Utilities +.79% 3) Internet +.72%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MOVE, TK, AMAG, VIMC, EBAY, CTAS, CENX and INVN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MTH 2) CORN 3) OWW 4) EBAY 5) DHR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) JNJ 2) CNP 3) MOVE 4) AAPL 5) GOOG
Charts:
  • ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
  • Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
0 comments

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 1:08 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Hong Kong Protesters Block Roads as Leaders Set Deadline. Tens of thousands of protesters filled streets in Hong Kong through the night to press for open elections and the resignation of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying, as student leaders set an Oct. 1 deadline for their demands to be met. While their numbers had thinned this morning, demonstrators remained in the main protest area near government headquarters in the Admiralty district, as well as in Causeway Bay and Mong Kok. Main roads through the central business district remain closed and some bus routes have been suspended, the government said in a statement late yesterday.
  • Islamic State Shells Hit Turkey Amid Syria Border Fight. Turkish tanks deployed along the border with Syria as shells fired by Islamic State militants landed inside Turkey, injuring five people including two soldiers. One of the mortar shells hit near the border crossing of Mursitpinar, close to a group of journalists and Turkish security forces, CNN-Turk said. Another shell landed near a refugee camp, about a kilometer inside Turkey. Regular explosions and gunfire could be heard from Turkish territory as Turkish troops returned fire, state-run Anadolu Agency said. 
  • China Factory Gauge Falls From Initial Reading as Growth Slows. A Chinese manufacturing gauge fell from an initial reading a week ago as a property slump weighs on the world’s second-largest economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics for September was at 50.2, lower than the flash reading of 50.5 and unchanged from August. Numbers above 50 signal expansion.
  • Japan’s Output Unexpectedly Slumps as Retail Sales Rise. Japan’s output unexpectedly fell while stronger retail sales and an improving job market showed resilience in the world’s third-biggest economy as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe weighs another sales-tax increase. Industrial production declined 1.5 percent in August from July, compared with the median estimate of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News for a 0.2 percent gain. Retail sales increased 1.9 percent from the previous month, as the jobless rate slid to 3.5 percent.
  • Asian Stocks Slide on Hong Kong as Kiwi Drops With Crude. Asian stocks fell, with the regional index headed for its biggest monthly drop since May last year amid concern over tensions in Hong Kong and after an unexpected decline in Japanese factory output. New Zealand’s dollar dropped to near a one-year low as crude oil declined. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.6 percent by 10:01 a.m. in Tokyo, pushing it down 5.1 percent in September. Japan’s Topix (TPX) index lost 0.9 percent, trimming its quarterly gain.
  • Iron Ore Heads for Record Run of Quarterly Losses as Glut Builds. Iron ore will complete a third straight quarterly decline today to post the longest losing run on record as a slowdown in China’s economy curbs demand growth in the largest buyer and worsens a global surplus. Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao, China lost 17 percent this quarter to $77.97 a dry metric ton, the lowest price since September 2009, according to data from Metal Bulletin Ltd. That follows a 19 percent drop between April and June and 13 percent retreat in the first three months. Thesteel-making ingredient is headed for the longest stretch of quarterly losses since the data series began in 2009.
  • Gluts Spur Investor Exit Signaling Prolonged Price Slumps. Investors are betting that the worst isn’t over for commodity prices that already are the lowest in five years. About $873 billion was pulled from U.S. exchange-traded products backed by raw materials this month, the most since April, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Expanding surpluses, a surging dollar and slowing growth in China helped send the Bloomberg Commodity Index to the lowest since 2009, reversing first-half gains fueled by a polar vortex and dead pigs in the U.S., and escalating tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Wall Street Journal:  
  • China President Xi Jinping Faces Stark Choices Over Hong Kong Protests. Beijing Wary of Conjuring Memories of Tiananmen Square. Massive democracy rallies in Hong Kong have offered Chinese President Xi Jinping stark choices between concession and crackdown, either of which pose problems for his government—and his own political standing. Throughout the weekend and into Monday, protesters, mostly students, confronted police and halted business activity in parts of Hong Kong, and as dawn broke Tuesday remained spread along major thoroughfares. Police fired tear gas and pepper spray to disperse the thousands of students gathered outside government headquarters on Sunday, but the protesters regrouped and re-emerged in greater numbers, choking off roadways in the heart of the city.
  • Iraqi Christians' Dilemma: Stay or Go? With ISIS Threat, Thousands of Chaldeans Face an Agonizing Decision.
  • Fed Rate Policies Aid Foreign Banks. Lenders Pocket a Spread by Borrowing Cheaply, Parking Funds at Central Bank.
  • Pimco Is in a Race to Keep Investors After Bill Gross Exits. Traders Look to Profit and Rivals Look to Poach Amid Turmoil at Bond Fund.
  • The Obama-Military Divide. What should senior officers do if experience tells them that the president's plan to defeat ISIS is unworkable without U.S. combat troops?
  • Head Off a Tiananmen Massacre in Hong Kong. Tear gas and pepper spray hint at worse to come. The White House must issue a clear warning to Beijing.
CNBC:
  • Ford(F) shares screeching on investor-day news.
Zero Hedge:
  • The Last Time Traders Were This Short 2Y Notes, Rates Collapsed. (graph)
  • China Housing Bubble Bursts: Q3 Land Sales Crater 50%. (graph)
  • The Goldman(GS) Tapes And Why The Delusion Of Macro-Prudential Regulation Means The Next Crash Is Nigh.
  • The Hong Kong Protest: What It's All About.
Business Insider: 
  • Even With Sanctions, Putin Is Still Getting Exactly What He Wants In Ukraine.
  • Now It Sounds Like Japanese Giant SoftBank Won't Buy DreamWorks After All.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.50 +2.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 73.25 +4.0 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (WAG)/.74
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • ISM Milwaukee for September is estimated to rise to 61.0 versus 59.63 in August.
  • S&P/CS 20 City MoM for July is estimated unch. versus a -.2% drop in June. 
9:45 am EST
  • Chicago Purchasing Manager for September is estimated to fall to 62.0 versus 64.3 in August.
10:00 am EST
  • Consumer Confidence for September is estimated to rise to 92.5 versus 92.4 in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Manufacturing PMI, German Unemployment Change, weekly US retail sales reports, (INTU) investor day, (MCO) investor day and the (TK) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
0 comments

Monday, September 29, 2014

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Growing Hong Kong Unrest, Fed Rate Hike Worries, Global Growth Fears, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:26 PM
Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.33 +9.97%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.99 +.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.26 +6.44%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.62 +9.35%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -3.66%
  • Total Put/Call .87 -22.32%
  • NYSE Arms 1.93 +166.32% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 +3.72%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.08 +6.28%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.44 +8.40%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 71.99 +4.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 279.16 +5.93%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 311.26 +.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 +2.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 22.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 -1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.
  • Yield Curve 192.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $77.70/Metric Tonne -1.15%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.90 -2.0 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.30 +2.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95 -6.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -25 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -1 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
0 comments

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 3:02 PM
Bloomberg:
  • HK Protesters Vow More to Come Unless Leader Leung Quits. Pro-democracy protesters vowed to press ahead with demonstrations unless Hong Kong’s top official steps down, with thousands of people surrounding government offices after violent clashes paralyzed the city center. Protesters dressed in black have gathered in the Admiralty district to demand free elections, while blocking a main road into the central business area. Rallies in the shopping neighborhoods of Causeway Bay and Mong Kok are picking up after a lull in the morning, leading banks to shut branches and deterring tourists.
  • Merkel Says EU, U.S. May Be Facing Long Ukraine Crisis. Chancellor Angela Merkel invoked the 40-year history of communist East Germany as showing that the European Union and the U.S. may be in for a long haul in their face-off with Russia over its actions in Ukraine. “I don’t see any change at the moment regarding Russia’s position,” Merkel said at a joint news conference with Finland’s Prime Minister Alexander Stubb today in Berlin. “I’m from former East Germany. Weneeded 40 years to overcome East Germany. Sometimes in history one has to be prepared for the long haul, and not ask after four months if it still makes sense to keep up our demands.”
  • Ukraine Army Sees Worst Day Since Truce as Battles Flare. Ukraine’s army endured its deadliest day since signing a cease-fire with pro-Russian militants 3 1/2 weeks ago, threatening to unravel a truce that calmed the six-month conflict in the nation’s east. Nine Ukrainian servicemen were killed in attacks during the last 24 hours, including an assault by a separatist tank on a government armored personnel carrier near the airport of Donetsk, the combat zone’s largest city, military spokesman Andriy Lysenko said today. Twenty-seven soldiers were wounded as troops repelled two “powerful” storming attempts by rebel fighters, killing 50 militants, he said. The rebels do not release casualty figures.
  • Russia’s RTS Slides Into Bear Market as Sistema Tumbles. Russia’s dollar-denominated RTS (RTSI$) Index entered a bear market as a court ruling restricting AFK Sistema from receiving dividend payments from its OAO Bashneft unit wiped a quarter off the holding’s value. The RTS dropped 2.6 percent to 1,126.21 by the close in Moscow, the lowest since April 25 and taking its decline from a June 24 high to 21 percent. The benchmark Micex Index (INDEXCF) fell 1.8 percent to 1,408.28. Sistema, controlled by the billionaire placed under house arrest in a probe into alleged money laundering, tumbled 25 percent to 12.68 rubles. The stock has lost 65 percent since Vladimir Evtushenkov’s Sept. 16 detention.
  • Ibovespa Leads World Losses as Real Tumbles After Poll. The Ibovespa plunged the most among global stock benchmarks while the real slumped to a 13-month low after a poll showed increased support for President Dilma Rousseff’s re-election bid. The Ibovespa declined 3.4 percent to 55,283.69 at 12:52 p.m. in Sao Paulo, set for the biggest decline since July 2013. State-controlled oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA contributed the most to the gauge’s decline, tumbling as much as 8.9 percent. The real fell 1.1 percent to 2.4466 per U.S. dollar, the most among 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Traders are paring bets on the chances a new government will be elected next month and jump-start economic growth after the country fell into a recession in the first half of the year.
  • Europe Stocks Fall as Banks Drop Amid Hong Kong Protests. A decline in bank shares led European stocks lower, with HSBC Holdings Plc weighing on the benchmark index amid pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. HSBC and Standard Chartered Plc slid more than 1.5 percent each as they shuttered some Hong Kong branches as protesters stayed on the streets after clashes with police. Commerzbank AG fell 4.2 percent after a person with knowledge of the matter said the lender faces a U.S. inquiry into whether it broke anti-money-laundering laws. Balfour Beatty (BBY) Plc slid to its lowest price in more than 10 years after signaling the outlook for construction earnings has worsened. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.4 percent to 340.99 at the close of trading, paring losses of as much as 0.9 percent.
  • Nickel Poised for Bear Market as Prices Head for Quarterly Loss. Nickel was poised to fall into a bear market after prices tumbled this quarter on signs an ore-export ban by the world’s biggest producer hasn’t depleted supplies as fast as forecast. The metal in London retreated as much as 2.5 percent today and is down 12 percent this quarter. Indonesia introduced restrictions on shipments in January, sending prices to the highest in more than two years. Nickel has since plunged as analysts from Credit Suisse Group AG to Citigroup Inc. said the shortfall will be less than expected. London Metal Exchange stockpiles are at the highest in records going back to 1979. 
  • Bond Warnings Rise as ’94 Parallels Seen in Fed-CPI Split. For bond investors who are convinced a lack of inflation will keep the Federal Reserve from upending Treasuries when it begins to raise interest rates, there’s one parallel in history that suggests they still have cause for concern. The last time consumer-price increases were slowing before the Fed started increasing borrowing costs was in 1994 -- when Treasuries lost 3.3 percent in what was then the biggest selloff on record. At the time, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan shocked the financial world by doubling the benchmark rate to 6 percent, even though inflation was at a seven-year low of 2.5 percent.
  • Hedge Funds Score With Small-Cap Shorts in Russell Drop. Hedge funds are finally getting something right in the equity market. Large speculators tracked by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have pushed short sales on the Russell 2000 Index (RTY) of the smallest shares to the highest in more than three years, just as the gauge is poised for its worst quarterly return since 2011. Bearish bets rose since March in the index, whose companies have a median value that’s 4 percent the size of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index stocks.
  • California College Students Must Now Consent Before Sex. Colleges in California that receive state funding must bolster policies on campus sexual assault under laws signed yesterday, the first in the U.S. requiring students give consent before they have sex. The bill, signed by Governor Jerry Brown, requires public universities and private colleges that get financial grants to mandate students agree verbally or through some other affirmative signal before having sex.
CNBC:
  • Markets remain 'vulnerable,' says Cashin. (video)
ZeroHedge:
  • "This Is What We Do" Warns 2nd Oklahoman ISIS-Supporter Arrested For Threatening To Behead Co-Worker.
  • "Hong Kong Risks Losing Its Role As A Financial Capital," Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Warns.
  • Can The US Economy Handle A Meaningful Downturn In Financial Asset Prices?
  • Stunning Drone Clip Reveals Massive Size Of Hong Kong Protest. (video)
  • Pending Home Sales Drop In August (After Record Surge In New Home Sales). (graph)
  • Stocks Tumble; High-Yield Credit Risk Spikes To 1-Year Highs. (graph)
  • Despite 2nd Slowest Income Growth In 2014, Spending Rises Most Since March Driven By Subprime, Car Sales. (graph)
  • New Global Crisis Imminent Due To “Poisonous Combination Of Record Debt And Slowing Growth", CEPR Report Warns.
Business Insider:
  • Obama Throws America's Spies Under The Bus.
  • The Chilling Quote That Shows You Just How Bad The Hong Kong Protests Could Get.
  • NETANYAHU: 'We Must Remove The Cancer' Of 'Militant Islam ... Before It's Too Late'.
  • DEAR GOPRO(GPRO) SPECULATORS: Here's What Will Have To Happen To Justify Today's Stock Price ...
  • ISIS Seems To Be Getting Closer And Closer To Baghdad.
Telegraph:
  • Mass default looms as world sinks beneath a sea of debt. Global debt is still rising strongly, crimping growth and threatening defaults around the world. 
  • Morgan Stanley(MS) warns on Asian debt shock as dollar soars. Foreign debt in emerging Asia has soared from $300bn to $2.5 trillion over the last decade.
Nikkei:
  • Keidanren Says Further Yen Weakening Would Hurt Japan. Sadayuki Sakakibara, head of Japan's business lobby Keidanren, said further weakening of the yen would have a negative impact on the Japanese economy. Sakakibara said a weak yen would increase gasoline and raw materials prices boosting costs for households and small businesses.
0 comments

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:14 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.80%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gaming -2.41% 2) Steel -1.92% 3) I-Banks -1.32%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • CVEO, TXTR, PTY, JNS, ELGX, PGP, CMTL, ADHD, SBRA, POWL, ATW, SGEN, PBR, BHP, CSWC, MDP, CTRP, BGC, GDOT, CMCM, AVY, CM, PHI, INVN, AME, RUBI, WMS, RPTP and XLS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DHI 2) OPK 3) ADSK 4) TXN 5) ADBE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MDC 2) AIG 3) WFC 4) TXTR 5) RDC
Charts:
  • ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
  • Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
0 comments

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 12:10 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.01%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Hospitals +.46% 2) Utilities +.24% 3) Biotech +.21%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • BAGL, ATHL, TIBX, AMAG, DWA, AGIO, NI, CLVS, GPRO, CONN, AMBA and LPI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TSN 2) TIBX 3) RUSL 4) ARIA 5) AGN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ECA 2) NI 3) ATHL 4) TIBX 5) DWA
Charts:
  • ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
  • Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
0 comments

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 12:30 AM
Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Netanyahu to Push Iran as Worse Threat Than Islamic State. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will urge world leaders to keep up the pressure on Iran over its nuclear program even as they confront the threat of Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria. Netanyahu, addressing the United Nations General Assembly today, will expand on his Sept. 22 remarks mocking “esteemed commentators in the West” who say “the major powers need to go easy on Iran’s nuclear program so that Iran will fight” Islamic State, according to aides familiar with his speech. They asked not to be identified because it hasn’t been delivered.
  • Turkey Wants Secure Syria Zone as Militants Strike Kurds. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said setting up a “secure zone” inside Syria is necessary to help refugees return after they fled Islamic State’s onslaught against Kurdish areas into Turkey. Erdogan’s remarks to the World Economic Forum in Istanbul may anger Kurdish officials, who accuse him of siding with Islamic State against the Kurds in Syria to justify creating a buffer zone that would smother the autonomous region there. The Turkish government denies supporting Islamic State or any militant group.
  • Ukraine Warns of Renegade Rebel Attacks Threatening Cease-Fire. Ukraine warned that groups beyond the control of rebel leaders in the country’s east were continuing attacks on government forces, undermining a truce that has mostly held since it was signed this month. Two autonomous rebel units, “Zarya” and “Don,” fired from long-range artillery at the Ukrainian army near Shchastya, a town 15 kilometers north of Luhansk, regional Governor Hennadiy Moskal said Sept. 27 on his website. Ukrainian troops repelled an attack on the Donetsk airport yesterday, according to military spokesman Andriy Lysenko.
  • Alibaba Slumps in First Week as Short Sellers Enter Trade. Day one for shareholders of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) was great. Week one proved less so. China’s largest e-commerce company slumped 3.7 percent to $90.46 last week.'
  • Softbank Discussing Buyout of DreamWorks Animation. Softbank Corp., the Japanese wireless carrier headed by Masayoshi Son, is in talks to buy Jeffrey Katzenberg’s DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. film studio, people familiar with the situation said. 
  • Commerzbank Said to Face U.S. Laundering Controls Probe. Commerzbank AG (CBK), the German lender seeking to resolve a probe into Iran sanctions violations, also faces a U.S. inquiry into whether it broke anti-money-laundering laws, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.
  • Hong Kong Dollar, Stocks Slide Amid Protest Crackdown. Hong Kong’s stocks fell to a two-month low, its currency dropped and equity-market volatility surged amid the biggest police crackdown on protesters since the city returned to Chinese rule. The benchmark Hang Seng Index sank 1.3 percent as of 9:50 a.m. in Hong Kong to the lowest intraday level since July 18 as developers and retailers tumbled. The MSCI Hong Kong Index headed for its biggest drop in a year, while a gauge of stock volatility jumped 15 percent, poised for the steepest surge since February. The city’s currency slid 0.03 percent to HK$7.7602 per greenback.
  • Asia Stocks Fall, Led by Hong Kong, as Dollar Climbs. Asian stocks dropped, led by a rout in Hong Kong, after clashes between police and pro-democracy protesters in the Chinese city. The dollar extended gains and the cost of insuring debt against default jumped after U.S. economic data bolstered the outlook for higher interest rates. The Hang Seng Index lost 2.3 percent by 11:22 a.m. in Tokyo, erasing its gain for the year and dragging the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to a 0.7 percent decline.
  • Iron Ore Seen Weak by Albanese as High-Cost Mines Face Pain. Iron ore prices that fell to a five-year low this month are seen staying weak for a sustained period as supply exceeds demand and China’s economy slows, according to Tom Albanese, former head of Rio Tinto Group. High-cost producers are facing a “pain point” at prices of about $80 a metric ton, Albanese, chief executive officer of London-based Vedanta Resources Plc (VED), said in interviews with Bloomberg Television and a reporter today. While low-cost producers would still be able to make good money in iron ore, there will be closures of higher-cost mines over time, he said.
  • Nickel Poised to Enter Bear Market on Path to Quarterly Loss. Nickel fell, heading for a bear market, on concern that demand will slow in China, the biggest metals user, and after Philippine lawmakers clarified last week they won’t seek an ore-export ban for at least seven years. The metal in London retreated as much as 2.5 percent and is down 13 percent this quarter. Profits at industrial companies in China fell last month for the first time in two years as a slowdown deepens, data showed Sept. 27.
  • Hedge Funds Raise Bullish Cocoa Bets on Ebola Concerns. Hedge funds raised bullish bets on cocoa before prices climbed to the highest since 2011 on concern that the deadly Ebola disease will disrupt supplies from West Africa, which produces 70 percent of global supply. Money managers raised their net-long positions by the most in 16 weeks.
  • Warren Calls For Hearings on New York Fed Allegations. U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren called for a congressional investigation into allegations that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had been too deferential to the institutions it regulated. “Congress must hold oversight hearings on the disturbing issues raised by today’s whistle-blower report when it returns in November -- because it’s our job to make sure our financial regulators are doing their jobs,” Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat and member of the Senate Banking Committee, said in a statement today. 
  • Fisher Says Fed Must Weigh Wage Pressures in Setting Rate Policy. The Federal Reserve mustn’t “fall behind the curve” as it weighs when to start raising interest rates, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said, citing strengthening U.S. growth and building wage-price pressures. Fisher, a vocal advocate for tighter monetary policy to protect against inflation, also said today that two soon-to-be-released economic reports from his Fed district would “knock your socks off.”
Wall Street Journal:
  • China's One-Two Punch Threatens to Hit Economic Growth. Anticorruption Drive Could Disrupt Plans for Wider Overhauls.
  • Billions Fly Out the Door at Pimco. About $10 Billion Is Withdrawn After Departure of Gross.
  • Small Caps Miss Out on Stock Rally.
  • When Central Bankers Become Central Planners. Macroprudential regulation is not likely to prevent asset bubbles. But credit allocation will depress growth.
Fox News:
  • US 'understimated' rise of ISIS, Obama says. President Obama acknowledged Sunday that U.S. intelligence officials "underestimated" the threat posed by the Islamic State and overestimated the Iraqi army’s capacity to defeat the militant group.
CNBC:
  • Is the long-expected high-yield selloff under way?
  • Political reticence blunts ECB’s asset purchase plan.
Zero Hedge:
  • S&P Warns On Germany As Anti-Euro Political Party Soars In Popularity.
  • The Rise In Volatility.
  • BofA Fears "This Would Exacerbate Any Equity Market Sell-Off". (graph)
  • High-Yield Credit's Worst Week In 15 Months Sends Stocks Sliding. (graph)
  • What Happens When A Money Printer Finally Crashes. (graph)
  • The Escape Velocity Delusion: Running Out Of "Next Year".
  • What Consumer-Facing CEOs Think: "It's Like Being At War".
  • Peak Debt - Why The Keynesian Money Printers Are Done. (graph)
  • Goldman(GS): "Some European Economies Already Qualify As A Japanese-Style Stagnation".
  • This Riot Is Not In Ferguson, It Is In Hong Kong.
  • Russia Discovers Massive Arctic Oil Field Which May Be Larger Than Gulf Of Mexico.
  • "Hope Is Not Good Policy" - Saxo Bank Warns The Entire World Is Headed For A Minsky Moment.
  • Can Market Forces Prevail: The Eurozone’s Unresolved Situation.
  • Police Officer Shot In Ferguson.
  • The Plunge Protection Team Is Opening An HFT-Focused Chicago Office.
  • The "Only Chart That Matters", Projected Until 2016. (graph)
  • "I Am Putting Everything In Goldman Sachs Because These Guys Can Do Whatever The Hell They Want".
Business Insider:
  • MICHAEL LEWIS: The 'Ray Rice Video' Of Wall Street Has Arrived. The recordings "portray a New York Fed that is at times reluctant to push hard against Goldman [Sachs]," Bernstein writes.
  • Another Round Of Nude Celebrity Photo Leaks Hits The Internet.
  • Now Part Of Spain Is Fighting For Independence.
  • Taliban Escalates Attacks In Afghanistan.
  • We Screwed Up On Ebola, And Now The Crisis Is Getting Much Worse.
  • Macy's(M) CEO Offers An Ominous Insight About American Consumers.
  • Ukraine Backs Off From EU-Backed Russia Gas Deal.
  • Cell Phones Give Away Much More Data Than Customers Realize.
  • Ukraine's Poroshenko Is Starting To Lose Support As Putin Gets His Way.
  • Hong Kong Protesters Aren't Going Anywhere Despite Massive Police Crackdown.
  • It Was A Bad Weekend For Europe.
  • John Hussman Just Issued His Strongest Warning Of A Stock Market Crash Yet.
  • The Arrest Of A Billionaire Does Not Bode Well For Russia's Economy.
  • The Russian Navy Is Aiming To Be Much Larger Than The US Navy.
Reuters:
  • Top U.S. regulators warn banks over 'Shellshock' bug. A group of top U.S. financial regulators urged banks to quickly fix their software to protect it against the "Shellshock" computer bug, saying it could expose them to fraud.
Financial Times: 
  • Geneva Report warns record debt and slow growth point to crisis. A “poisonous combination” of record debt and slowing growth suggest the global economy could be heading for another crisis, a hard-hitting report will warn on Monday.
Wirtschaftswoche:
  • Ifo's Sinn Urges Germany to Act Against ECB ABS Purchases. Germany should take legal moves to oppose the European Central Bank's purchase of asset-backed securities, Hans-Werner Sinn, head of the Ifo economic institute, says in preview of guest editorial to be published in the coming edition. ECB would exceed its treaty-restricted monetary mandate with the planned purchases, Sinn said.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.0 +4.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 69.25 +4.0 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.12%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.29%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.25%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (CALM)/1.17
  • (CTAS)/.75
  • (COCO)/.11
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for August is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in July.
  • Personal Spending for August is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in July.
  • The PCE Core for August is estimated unch. versus a +.1% gain in July. 
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales for August are estimated to fall -.5% versus a +3.3% gain in July.
10:30 am EST
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for September is estimated to rise to 10.5 versus 7.1 in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Consumer Confidence report, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference, Johnson Rice Energy Conference, (NI) investor day and the (F) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

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