Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Scots Independence Counting Begin as U.K. Hangs in Balance. Preliminary results in Scotland’s independence referendum put the “no” side ahead, as one pollster and a senior government official called victory for the campaign to keep the country in the U.K. With the U.K.’s future hanging in the balance through the night, Clackmannanshire became the first of Scotland’s 32 local authorities to declare, giving the result to the Better Together campaign by 54 percent to 46 percent for “yes.” Orkney followed, with 67 percent ``no'' to 33 percent ``yes,'' then Shetland, by 64 percent to 36 percent for ``yes.''
• LIVE RESULTS: The Scottish Independence Vote.
• Putin's Bullying Gets Scarier and Subtler.
• Terror ‘Chatter’ Prompts Alert at Australian Parliament. Police stepped up security at Australia’s parliament to guard against a terrorist attack, as authorities investigate an alleged Islamic State beheading plot. 
• Pound Jumps With U.K. Futures on Scotland as Crops Drop. The pound jumped to a two-week high, U.K. share-index futures rose and Treasuries fell as early results showed Scotland voting to reject independence. Asian equities (MXAP) climbed with contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index on signs of U.S. economic strength, and the yen fell. The pound gained 0.6 percent to $1.6495 by 10:58 a.m. in Tokyo, the highest since Sept. 3, and FTSE 100 Index futures added 0.7 percent. The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed three basis points while S&P 500 futures added 0.2 percent following another record in New York. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent.
• Commodities Drop to 5-Year Low as Fed Boosts Rate Outlook. The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 futures dropped as much as 1.3 percent to 120.4562, the lowest level since July 2009, and was last at 120.4843. The gauge has lost 4.2 percent in 2014 and is set for a fourth year of declines. Diesel decreased to a two-year low, while gold slipped to the lowest level since January. Wheat fell to the least since 2010 on the outlook for growing global output.
• Investors Withdraw $1.2 Billion from Junk-Bond Funds. Investors pulled $1.2 billion from U.S. funds that buy high-yield bonds, the largest weekly outflow since a record $7.1 billion during the first week of August, according to data provider Lipper.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Tracks Threats Against West by Al Qaeda Affiliate in Syria. Concerns That Too Much Focus is on Islamic State. The U.S. is tracking multiple terror plots based out of Syria that target the West—threats that current and former intelligence officials say have been traced to al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate and not to Islamic State, the extremist group that has seized the world's attention. Disclosures about the plots, which include bombings, are raising new questions about whether U.S. military strategy focusing on Islamic State militants...
• Polls Close in Scottish Independence Vote. First 2 Districts to Report Ballot Results Choose to Stay in U.K. Voters in Scotland on Thursday decided whether to break up the U.K. after 307 years, in a historic referendum pitting a vision of Scottish independence against potential economic turmoil.
• U.S. Treasury Market Goes Off Script. Gap Between Short- and Long-Term Yields Narrows.
• The Unwisdom of Barack Obama. Is he weak? Arrogant? Ambivalent? Don't overthink the president. 
• Alibaba's(BABA) Political Risk. The giant IPO is a business triumph, but Beijing's blessing can be fleeting. 

Fox News:

• Immigration worker union warns ‘serious threat’ of ISIS entering US. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• "Stocks Are More Crash-Prone Than Ever," Fleckenstein Slams "Fed's Idiot Policies". (video)
• The Next Crisis - Part 1.
• Australia Stunned After ISIS Plan To "Publicly Behead Random Person In Sydney" Foiled. (video)
• With A Market Cap Of $168 Billion, Alibaba Is Bigger Than...
• Larry Ellison Steps Down As CEO Of Oracle.
• Yesterday's Late-Day Buying Panic In Stocks Was The Biggest In 3 Years. (graph)
• On The Ambiguity Of The Fed's Dot Plot.
• FX Markets In Turmoil On Scottish Vote & Japan Economic Downgrade.

Business Insider: 

• SAP(SAP) Just Spent $8.3 Billion To Become 'The Second-Largest Cloud Company'.
• Home Depot Says Data Breach Put 56 Million Cards At Risk.
• SETH KLARMAN: 'Investors Have Been Seduced Into Feeling Good'.

Reuters: 

• Cerner(CERN) and Athenahealth(ATHN) say integrating with Apple's(AAPL) mobile health service.
• U.S.-based stock funds attract $6.7 bln over week - Lipper.
• Oracle(ORCL) quarterly revenue misses on weak hardware sales.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.99

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.0 -.5 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 63.50 -1.0 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures +.79%.

• S&P 500 futures +.41%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.45%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for August is estimated to rise .4% versus a +.9% gain in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Canadian CPI and (CAG) annual meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrials and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.