Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Ukraine Cease-Fire Talks Set as East’s Fate Teeters. .Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko voiced “careful optimism” that talks today with pro-Russian rebels in Minsk, Belarus, will set the course for a cease-fire after more than five months of fighting After Poroshenko met yesterday with leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the alliance’s Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said it’s too early to tell whether peace overtures by Russian President Vladimir Putin are genuine. “We have seen similar statements and initiatives, and they have actually just been a smokescreen for continued Russian destabilization of the situation in Ukraine,” Rasmussen told reporters at the summit in Newport, Wales. “Based on experience, we have to be cautious.”

• Al-Qaeda India Jihad Vow Tests Modi Bid to Unite Muslims, Hindus. Al-Qaeda’s announcement that it plans to conduct jihad operations in India will provide a test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to overcome divisions between Hindus and Muslims and find ways to work with Pakistan to counter extremism.

• Macau Casino Bulls Seen Capitulating After Stocks Tumble.

• Asian Stocks Fall for Second Day on Material Producers. Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index heading for a second daily decline, as material companies slid. Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCM), Australia’s biggest gold producer, slipped 3.7 percent after the price of bullion fell. Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., the nation’s third-largest iron ore miner, sank 3.5 percent after a gauge of prices for the raw material in China dropped to an almost five-year low. Sekisui House Ltd. rose 2.5 percent in Tokyo after the homebuilder reported first-half net income increased. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.5 percent to 148.17 as of 10:57 a.m. in Hong Kong, with about four shares declining for every three that rose.

• Investors Pull $435 Million From Loan Funds in U.S., Lipper Says. Investors pulled $435 million from U.S. funds that buy leveraged loans, the eighth straight weekly outflow, according to Lipper. The withdrawal increased this year’s net outflows to $4.3 billion, Lipper data show. Investors have soured on the debt after depositing a record $62.9 billion last year into loan funds. U.S. high-yield bond funds lost $198 million in the five days through yesterday, the first outflow in four weeks, according to Lipper. That brought net withdrawals this year to $9.5 billion. 

• Gap(GPS) Falls After August Same-Store Sales Trail Estimates. Gap Inc. (GPS) fell in late trading after posting August same-store sales that trailed analysts’ estimates amid weakness at its namesake clothing chain. Sales online and at stores open at least a year declined 2 percent, the company said today in a statement. Analysts estimated a 1.7 percent gain. Sales by that measure at Gap-brand stores slid 6 percent, while analysts projected a 0.4 percent drop.

• 'Worst Case' BP Ruling on Gulf Spill Means Billions More in Penalties. BP Plc acted with gross negligence in setting off the biggest offshore oil spill in U.S. history, a federal judge ruled, handing down a long-awaited decision that may force the energy company to pay billions of dollars more for the 2010 Gulf of Mexico disaster. 

Wall Street Journal:

• West Raises Pressure on Russia Ahead of Ukraine Peace Talks. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's Comments Come as World Leaders Meet for Alliance Summit. The U.S. and Europe moved to toughen sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine crisis amid signs that some countries could go even further and send weapons to Kiev—ratcheting up the pressure on pro-Russia rebels a day ahead of peace talks. At a summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Wales, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko expressed what he called "careful optimism" that a cease-fire would be agreed to Friday in...

• Coalition Emerges to Battle Islamic State Militants. American allies including the U.K. and France said they would help form an international military coalition to fight a growing threat from Islamic State militants. While members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization meeting here on Thursday were weighing what role they would play, U.S. officials urged them to commit to a strategy that includes providing more arms to Kurdish forces fighting the Islamist insurgents...

• Rate Rift Makes Investors Regroup. ECB's Moves Cause Euro to Plunge, While European Stock Markets and Treasury Yields Advance.

• The World Needs a Clarion. Obama can't lead a coalition if nobody can follow his thinking. It is a muddle, a murk and a desperate-looking thing, the president on the subject of the Islamic State. The Islamic State is the junior varsity. No, it is a "cancer." We will "degrade and destroy" it. No, we'll render it "a manageable problem." It's all so halting, herky-jerky and, for a great power, embarrassing. Ich bin ein Limiter of Spheres of Influence. Mr. Obama has been severely criticized and soon will change the story with a new statement. Actually to a degree he already has, in...

MarketWatch.com:

• Dallas Fed chief repeats Gross characterization of Yellen as ‘Hindu goddess’.

CNBC: 

• Amid Ebola crisis, is something worse around corner?

Zero Hedge: 

• Russian General Demands Preemptive Nuclear Strike Doctrine Against NATO.

• Is This Putin's Ukraine Strategy?

• 3 Things Worth Thinking About.

• What Mario Draghi Really Did.

• Obviously Not A Bubble. (graph)

• US Dollar Up - Everything Else Down (Except Trannies).

• Fast-Food Workers Strike, Arrested Across America: The Unseen Costs Of The Minimum Wage.

ValueWalk:

• Hedge Fund Closes Shop, Blames HFT In Investor Letter.

Business Insider:

• A Hacker Breached The Obamacare Website.

• Russian Rockets Are Falling Within Sight Of A Strategically Vital Ukrainian City.

• The NYPD Is Going To Start Putting Body Cameras On Police Officers.

• Pentagon: Russian Forces Near Ukraine Are 'More Lethal' Than Ever.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.99

Telegraph: 

• Mario Draghi’s feeble attempt to save the eurozone is bound to fail. Cutting interest rates by 0.1pc will have virtually no impact on the eurozone economy at all.

China Securities Journal:

• China M&As That Are 'Too Radical' May Cause Bubble. Mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in emerging industries that are "too radical" may cause bubbles and investors should be cautious, according to a front-page commentary by reporter Wan Jing.

Economic Information Daily:

• China Asks All Provincial Governments For Balance Sheets. China asked all provincial-level governments to compile local balance sheets this year, citing a person close to the Ministry of Finance.

Evening Recommendations
Suntrust Robinson:

• Rated (ALXN) Buy, target $229.

• Rated (INCY) Buy, target $71.

• Rated (CELG) Buy, target $121.

• Rated (BLUE) Buy, target $57.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.0 -2.25 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 63.0 +.75 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures -.14%.

• S&P 500 futures -.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  -.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for August is estimated to rise to 230K versus 209K in July.

• The Unemployment Rate is estimated to fall to 6.1% versus 6.2% in July.

• Average Hourly Earnings for August are estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Rosengren speaking and German Factory Orders could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.