Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Massive Aid Needed for Ebola Outbreak as Outlook Worsens. (video) Massive amounts of supplies and additional health workers are still needed in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea to help control the Ebola outbreak there that may grow to more than 1 million infections under one worst-case scenario, according to aid agencies. Curbing the virus will require 1,000 more international medical personnel as well as 20,000 local residents who know the area well and can work as doctors, nurses, communication specialists, burial teams, contact tracers and trainers, said Dan Epstein, a spokesman for the World Health Organization. 

• Ukrainian Unrest Eases as NATO Says Russia Cuts Presence. NATO said Russia has embarked on a “significant” withdrawal of its forces from Ukraine, adding to signs that a truce is taking hold between the government in Kiev and separatist groups. “There has been a significant pullback of Russian conventional forces from inside Ukraine,” Lieutenant-Colonel Jay Janzen, chief of media operations at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said in an e-mailed statement yesterday. “Some Russian troops still remain.”

• China Stocks Drop After Goldman Sachs Cuts Growth Target. China’s stocks fell after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecast for China’s economic growth and a logistics company said its unit defaulted. Wanhua Chemical Group Co. paced declines by industrial companies. Goldman Sachs reduced its 2015 target to 7.1 percent from 7.6 percent, while keeping this year’s estimate unchanged at 7.3 percent. Anhui Wanjiang Logistics Group Co. said its unit had debts of 2.1 billion yuan ($337 million) of debts due. Shares in the company are suspended. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) lost 0.1 percent to 2,306.94 at 9:45 a.m., while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed 0.3 percent from a two-month low.

• Asian Stocks Extend Losses Amid Yen Advance; Kiwi Rallies. Asian stocks fell, with the regional index headed for its lowest close in more than three months, as the yen rallied following a Japanese holiday and after a selloff in U.S. equities. New Zealand’s dollar rose from a one-year low amid a smaller-than-estimated trade deficit. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent by 9:57 a.m. in Tokyo, dropping a third day as Japan’s Topix index retreated 0.3 percent from its Sept. 22 close. 

• Iron Ore Price Outlook Cut Again by Australia on Supply Jump. Australia’s state commodity forecaster cut its iron ore price estimates for this year and 2015, pruning its outlook again as surging production in the world’s largest supplier outpaces demand growth in China. The commodity will average about $94 a metric ton this year from $105 a ton forecast in June, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics said in a quarterly report today. Prices may be $94 a ton in 2015 from $97 estimated in June, it said.

• Cross-Border Swap Dispute Risks Trade War, CFTC’s Giancarlo Says. U.S. and European regulators risk a permanent breakdown in financial markets if they can’t end a dispute over transatlantic oversight of the $700 trillion swaps industry, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission member said. J. Christopher Giancarlo, in his first speech since joining the CFTC in June, said the U.S. agency should retract some of its overseas policies to boost coordination with Europe and prevent a trade war that would imperil economic growth.

Wall Street Journal: 

• U.S. Reports Significant Damage in First Wave of Syria Strikes. American, Arab Warplanes Hit Targets Around Iraq-Syria Border. The first U.S.-led airstrikes on extremist groups in Syria hit militant leaders, training camps and control centers, U.S. officials said, promising this was only the start of a long campaign. The attacks were conducted with the aid of Arab allies, but the U.S. carried the bulk out of the raids. After the first wave of strikes, the U.S. said it conducted follow-on attacks during the day Tuesday that hit two Islamic State...

• Fraudulent Transactions Surface in Wake of Home Depot(HD) Breach. Banks See Attempts to Use Credit- and Debit-Card Information From Hacking of Retailer.

Fox News:

• Al Qaeda-linked target of strikes in Syria obsessed with next 9/11. (video) The U.S.-led coalition airstrikes in Syria put a spotlight on the shady terrorist group known as Khorasan, a small but potent Al Qaeda offshoot whose sole objective is pulling off another 9/11 terror attack.

MarketWatch.com:

• How tax-inversion rules may stall mergers. 

Zero Hedge:

• GaveKal Goes Looking For Black Swans, Finds A Soaring Skew. (graph)

• When The New Normal Fails: The "Problem With Traditional Economics" In A Bizarro, Centrally-Planned World.

• BBBuYbacks. (graph)

• How The Fed 'Broke' The Markets (In 2 Simple Charts). (graph)

• The Fed's Credit Channel Is Broken And Its Bathtub Economics Has Failed.

• Earnings Charts. (graph)

• The Fed Kills Emerging Markets For Profit. (graph)

• On The Market's Central-Bank-Induced Bipolar Disease. (graph)

Business Insider:

• CLIFF ASNESS: Hedge Funds Aren't Really 'Hedge' Funds. Asness said hedge funds aren't, "diversifying as they should be... So I will tell you, I think hedge funds don't hedge enough... They don't fully hedge, which makes them less of a diversifier and less of a good deal." 

• Corn Has Been Getting Crushed.

• Most Americans Believe We're Still In A Recession.

Reuters:

• Yen rises after Abe reportedly says watching impact of yen weakness. The dollar fell to as low as 108.46 yen from around 108.75 yen on Wednesday after the Jiji news service reported Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe saying he would carefully watch the impact of the yen's recent weakness on Japanese regional economies. 

• Canadian fertilizer companies brace for fall in U.S. crop prices. Canadian fertilizer companies Potash Corp of Saskatchewan and Agrium Inc are bracing for a pullback in demand from U.S. farmers due to sliding crop prices, but say any slump is unlikely to be severe. 

• Risky leveraged loans may affect banks in stress test - FT. The U.S. Federal Reserve is warning banks that lending for deals that load up companies with too much debt could impact its assessment of banks' loan loss rates in the next stress test, the Financial Times reported.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.9Brazil cuts 2014 GDP growth forecast, keeps fiscal goal

Australian Financial Review:

• Fees on foreign property buyers could raise $400m. Hitting foreign property buyers with a modest application fee could generate more than $400 million to fund a crackdown on illegal purchases blamed for pricing locals out of the market. A government-dominated parliamentary committee is actively considering whether to impose fees of as much as $1500 per purchase. The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its official six-monthly financial stability review on Wednesday, which is expected to lay out official concerns about the property market.

21st Century Business Herald:

• China Halts LGFV Private Bond Registration. Chinese regulator has suspended registration for private placement of bonds from local government financing vehicles, citing a person familiar with the matter.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.0 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 65.0 +1.5 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.32%.

• S&P 500 futures +.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.08%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (PAYX)/.46

• (KBH)/.41

• (JBL)/.00

• (FUL)/.76

• (WOR)/.64

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for August are estimated to rise to 430K versus 412K in July.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +470,000 barrels versus a +3,673,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -154,550 barrels versus a -1,635,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate Supplies are estimated to rise by +731,820 barrels versus a +279,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.54% versus a -.9% decline the prior week.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Loretta speaking, German IFO Business Climate Index, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, $35B 5Y T-Note auction and the (NWL) analyst day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.