Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Iranian Supreme Leader Refrains From Endorsing Nuclear Deal. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei refrained from endorsing a framework nuclear deal agreed with world powers and said all sanctions must be lifted once a final accord is reached. In his first public comments addressing the April 2 pact that was outlined in Lausanne, Switzerland, Khamenei said on Thursday he was “neither for it, nor against it.” Envoys from the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China, Germany and Iran have given themselves until June 30 to reach a permanent deal.
• Lagarde Warns of ‘Bumpy Ride’ as Fed Prepares for Rate Rise. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde says the world could be in for a “bumpy ride” when the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, with overpriced markets and emerging economies likely to take the biggest hits. While risks to the global economy have decreased over the last six months, threats to the world’s financial system have actually risen, Lagarde said on Thursday ahead of next week’s spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington. A long period of low interest rates in the U.S. and other advanced economies has fostered a higher risk tolerance among investors, “which can lead to overpricing” and could pose “solvency challenges” for life insurers and defined-benefit pension fund, she said. Lagarde, 59, warned that “liquidity can evaporate quickly if everyone rushes for the exit at the same time -- which could, for example, make for a bumpy ride when the Federal Reserve begins to raise short-term rates,” she said the text of a speech at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
• Greece Wins More ECB Emergency Cash as Deal Seen Near Reach. (video) Greece secured an increase in emergency funding available to its banks as Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said he’s confident of reaching an aid agreement with European partners this month. The European Central Bank’s Governing Council raised the cap on Emergency Liquidity Assistance provided by the Bank of Greece by 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) to 73.2 billion euros in a telephone conference on Thursday, said two people familiar with the discussion. That was more than the 700 million-euro increase granted last week. An ECB spokesman declined to comment.
• Hong Kong Housewife Cheers Stocks as Workers Trade at Lunch. Hong Kong’s stock market rally is drawing individual investors from all walks of life as the Hang Seng Index soars to a seven-year high. With money from the mainland exchange link contributing to record turnover in the city’s $4.9 trillion stock market, a crowd of part-time traders hunched over computer screens at Bright Smart Securities & Commodities Group in Hong Kong’s central business district to take advantage of the surge in Chinese demand. “Things are getting quite exciting,” said Chow Man, a 68-year-old housewife who favors Chinese banks and infrastructure stocks and says she has as much as HK$200,000 ($25,000) in play. “It’s becoming like a hobby for a lot of mainland investors to trade stocks now. That’s why more of them are taking opportunities in Hong Kong.”  
• Here Are the Top Stocks Leading the Buying Frenzy in Hong Kong. As the flood of Chinese money pours into Hong Kong, shares in the city are rising indiscriminately across industries, driving the Hang Seng Composite Index toward a seven-year high. “A rising tide lifts all boats,” said Warren Lau, an analyst with Maybank Kim Eng Securities in Hong Kong. “This is a liquidity-driven market.” Below are the top performers on the Hang Seng Composite since yesterday. Gains are as of the midday trading break in Hong Kong.
• Fed-ECB Policy Gap Become Canyon for Euro, Deutsche Bank Says. (graph) Financial markets are signaling the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates about four years before the European Central Bank, magnifying weakness in the euro, according to Deutsche Bank AG. About a year ago, money-market derivatives projected monetary tightening in America and the euro area both taking place sometime in 2016. 
• Europe Stocks Climb to Record After German Industrial Production. The biggest three-day jump since January sent European stocks to an all-time high. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 1.1 percent to 409.15 at the close of trading in London.
• Russian Oil Floods Export Market as Teapot Plants Lose Money. Crude oil exports from Russia, the world’s biggest producer, grew about seven times faster than output in the first quarter as the country processed less fuel at home. Shipments from the country increased 7.4 percent from a year earlier between January and March, the biggest gain in at least nine years and outstripping a 1.1 percent rise in production, according to Energy Ministry data. Domestic crude deliveries to refineries fell 1.9 percent as OAO Rosneft said simple plants, known as teapots, were not profitable to run after prices plunged last year.
• The Oil Industry's $26 Billion Life Raft. For U.S. shale drillers, the crash in oil prices came with a $26 billion safety net. That’s how much they stand to get paid on insurance they bought to protect themselves against a bear market -- as long as prices stay low. The flipside is that those who sold the price hedges now have to make good. At the top of the list are the same Wall Street banks that financed the biggest energy boom in U.S. history, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. While it’s standard practice for them to sell some of that risk to third parties, it’s nearly impossible to identify who exactly is on the hook because there are no rules requiring disclosure of all transactions. The buyers come from groups like hedge funds, airlines, refiners and utilities. “The folks who were willing to sell it were left holding the bag when prices moved,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC, an energy hedge fund in New York.
• Private Equity’s Big Bet on Shipping Falters as Deal Boom Ends. At a New York shipping conference late last year, Mark Friedman, a senior managing director at Evercore Partners Inc., regaled attendees with an analogy to the Eagles’ “Hotel California.” Investors, as his reference to the song went, can get into the industry but can never leave. WL Ross & Co., Oaktree Capital Group LLC and other private-equity firms bought vessels at near record-low prices since 2010, planning to ride the global recovery. Instead, they found that what goes down sometimes stays down. And now, stuck running fleets that few others want to buy, they’re left to contend with declining freight rates.
• Muddy Waters Shorts Noble Group, Quizzes Cash Flow in Report. Muddy Waters LLC, the research firm founded by short seller Carson Block, published a report questioning Noble Group Ltd.’s cash flow and management, adding its weight to recent criticism of the commodity trading company’s finances. Muddy Waters has taken a short position in Noble, Asia’s largest commodity trader by revenue, the U.S. researcher said on its website. Noble rejected the Muddy Waters allegations in a statement to the Singapore stock exchange, where it trades.

Wall Street Journal:

• Plunging Iron Ore a Major Challenge For Australian Budget. Treasurer Joe Hockey says assumptions for iron ore will have to be revised further. Plunging iron-ore prices are forcing Australia’s government to redraw forecasts underpinning the nation’s finances, another sign of how fragile the economy is. 

CNBC: 

• Why the stock market is way overvalued. Interesting note from Nomura this morning saying the market is currently pricing in 9.6 percent earnings growth in the S&P 500, well above the long-term realized average of 7 percent (since 1945) and much higher than analysts' expectations of mostly flat earnings growth this year.
• Hedge fund machines cash in—again. The robots are winning again. Hedge funds that rely on sophisticated computer algorithms to invest are once again producing the industry's best returns.

ZeroHedge:

• Bernanke Supercycles. 
• Despite Constant Saudi Bombing, Yemen Rebels Advance, Seize Key Town; Ayatollah Trolls US, Saudis on Twitter.
• Job Cuts In Industries "Closely-Related" To Oil Likely To Triple, Goldman Says. (graph)
• Recession 2.0: Abysmal Wholesale Sales Join Factory Orders In Confirming US Economic Contraction. (graph)
• "Another Crisis Is Coming": Jamie Dimon Warns Of The Next Market Crash.
• Crazed Chinese Housewives Frothing At Hong Kong Bubble Euphoria. (graph)
• Rebutting Bernanke’s Defense Of Himself.
• Latest Weekly Initial Claims Of 281K Better Than Expected, Under 300K For Fifth Straight Week. (graph)
• Iran Dictates "Deal" Conditions To Obama, Demands All Sanctions Lifted On "Same Day".

Business Insider: 

• A hedge fund that bet on energy junk bonds is shutting down because of the oil crash.
• Don't be fooled by Greece making that IMF payment — the country is still marching into chaos.
• More and more voters don't trust Hillary Clinton and it's doing some major damage.
• The stocks that active managers love most are dragging them down.
• Walgreens(WAG) will close 200 US stores.