Monday, October 31, 2016

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
  • China Shows a Cheap Currency Doesn’t Pack the Same Punch Anymore. Chalk up China as another example where a cheapening exchange rate is failing to lift exports. As already seen in Japan in recent years, what textbooks say should happen when a country’s currency falls -- its exports gain -- isn’t. Bathroom accessories maker Dongguan City XinChen Gift Co., in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong, is among those seeing one step forward, two steps back when it comes to the exchange rate. "The support from a weaker yuan is negligible compared to the pressure we face from rising labor and materials costs," said owner Sandy Chang. "Foreign demand is already down. When growth is slow in our major markets, people just don’t buy."
  • Subsidy Crunch Cuts Funding for Clean Energy in Biggest Markets. The green-energy industry is starting to feel the impact of an efficiency drive sweeping Asia, where governments from China to Japan are scaling back subsidies to constrain a boom in installations. Investment in clean-power technologies in Asia slumped 41 percent to $70.1 billion in the first nine months of the year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which hosts a conference on the issue in Shanghai starting Tuesday. It’s the first decline in the modern history of an industry that’s barely a decade old. The ability of those plants to produce electricity is on track to surge 13 percent, the research group said.
  • Panasonic Falls After Cutting Profit Target on Yen, Solar Panels. Panasonic Corp. fell in Tokyo trading after reducing its full-year operating profit forecast by 21 percent as profitability in its solar panel and electronic components businesses declined and a stronger yen reduced income earned abroad. The shares declined as much as 7.9 percent as of 9:06 a.m. on Tuesday, the biggest intraday slump in three months.
  • Asian Stocks Fall After Plunge in Oil; Yen Steady Ahead of BOJ. Asian stocks fell following a plunge in oil prices ahead of manufacturing data for the region’s biggest economies and central bank policy reviews in Australia and Japan. Energy shares led declines on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index for a second day after crude prices dropped on Monday by the most in a month amid disappointment that OPEC-led talks among major oil producers failed to yield details on a planned deal to cut output. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent as of 9:24 a.m. Tokyo time, with a measure of energy stocks sinking as much as 0.5 percent.
  • Three of Fed’s Own Primary Dealers Warn Hikes on Hold Until 2017. Three of the Federal Reserve’s own primary dealers are warning bond traders that a growing consensus the central bank will raise interest rates by year-end is misguided. While none of the 23 banks that trade with the Fed expect a hike at the conclusion of Wednesday’s meeting, HSBC Holdings Plc, Royal Bank of Canada and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc remain steadfast that policy makers will choose to hold off on raising rates at the Fed’s Dec. 14 meeting as well.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.25 unch. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 35.5 +1.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.28 +.01%
  • S&P 500 futures +.34%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.35%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

  • (ADM)/.46
  • (BP)/.04
  • (COH)/.45
  • (CMI)/1.96
  • (DISCA)/.44
  • (EMR)/.89
  • (FSS)/.16
  • (HCP)/.71
  • (IDXX)/.60
  • (ICE)/3.22
  • (K)/.87
  • (LYB)/2.32
  • (MLM)/2.58
  • (TAP)/1.01
  • (MOS)/.09
  • (PFE)/.62
  • (PBI)/.46
  • (RDC)/.-03
  • (SNE)/13.89
  • (CERN)/.60
  • (DVN)/.06
  • (EA)/.43
  • (GILD)/2.84
  • (HLF)/1.09
  • (ILMN)/.87
  • (PZZA)/.50
  • (X)/.84
  • (ZG)/.13
  • (WBMD)/.40
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
  • The Final US Markit Manufacturing PMI for October is estimated at 53.2 versus a prior estimate of 53.2.
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for September is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.7% decline in August.
  • ISM Manufacturing for October is estimated to rise to 51.7 versus 51.5 in September.
  • ISM Prices Paid for October is estimated to rise to 54.3 versus 53.0 in September.
  • The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for November is estimated to fall to 48.5 versus 51.3 in October.   
  • Total Vehicle Sales for October are estimated to fall to 17.6M versus 17.65M in September.
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The BoJ rate decision, weekly US retail sales reports, (F) sales conference call and the (LB) investor update meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

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