Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Yen Weakness, Utility/REIT Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.58 +1.43%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 119.92 +.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.39 -.29%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.09 +1.10%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +65.52%
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 -8.11%
  • NYSE Arms 1.0 -13.18
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.89 +.47%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 609.0 +.08%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.88 -1.24%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.90 +.05%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 34.23 +2.24%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 237.31 -1.13%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.38 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 52.50 -3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -39.50 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.21 -.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .34% +1.0 basis point 
  • Yield Curve 91.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $57.16/Metric Tonne -.90%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.80 -2.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.8 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.70 -1.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65% unch.
  • 67.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 70.3% chance at Feb. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +155 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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