Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Earnings Optimism, Less European/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Healthcare/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.36 -5.24%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 119.15 -.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.79 -2.97%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.24 -5.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 61.0 -30.7%
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 +8.33%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 +10.2
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.09 -1.22%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 598.0 +.06%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.0 -1.45%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.51 -5.42%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 34.46 -.49%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 244.38 -1.23%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.50 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 55.25 -4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -41.25 +4.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.38 +.46%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .33% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 94.75 -.25 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $58.41/Metric Tonne +.05%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.70 -7.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.4 -1.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.30 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68% -1.0 basis point
  • 63.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 65.0% chance at Feb. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +31 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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