Monday, October 17, 2016

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Concerns, Oil Decline, Yen Strength, Restaurant/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.35 +1.43%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 119.28 -.09%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.15 -.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.78 +1.76%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 +10.53%
  • Total Put/Call .97 +4.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 -8.55
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.06 +.72%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 598.0 -.98%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.44 +.85%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 19.57 -5.32%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 34.63 +1.42%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 247.78 +2.08%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.46 +.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.50 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 59.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -45.50 -1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.05 +.02%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 95.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $58.38/Metric Tonne +1.92%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.70 -2.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.8 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.10 +.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.69% +5.0 basis points
  • 65.9% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 67.3% chance at Feb. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -40 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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