Thursday, October 27, 2016

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Rising Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Homebuilding/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.83 +4.14%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 119.86 +.69%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.52 +.42%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.71 +4.06%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 -1.75%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -8.89%
  • NYSE Arms .49 -24.73
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.93 +1.27%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 581.0 +8.24%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 95.31 -.31%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.76 -3.53%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.55 +.03%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 236.66 +1.8%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.51 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 57.0 +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -46.0 -3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.17 -.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% -4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 96.0 +4.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $63.04/Metric Tonne -.05%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.6 -1.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.8 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.10 +.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73% unch.
  • 72.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 74.2% chance at Feb. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +138 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -18 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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