Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Diminishing Tax Reform/Deregulation Hopes, Yen Strength, Oil Decline, Financial/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.55 +10.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.34 +.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.92 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.12 +1.93%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 124.0 +27.8%
  • Total Put/Call .97 -9.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.41 +23.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.91 +.77%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 403.0 +1.29%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.42 -3.03%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.14 -9.16%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.42 -.39%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 214.89 +.39%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 136.05 +.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 35.5 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 39.5 -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.75 +2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.32 +.05%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .75% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 116.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $87.59/Metric Tonne -4.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.20 -.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 45.30 -1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.40 -.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.0 -1.0 basis point
  • 56.7% chance of Fed rate hike at June 14 meeting, 62.2% chance at July 26 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -290 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +26 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my retail/tech/biotech sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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