Monday, March 20, 2017

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Tax Reform Worries, Oil Decline, Technical Selling, Hospital/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.33 +.44%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.37 -.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.94 +1.25%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.31 -.59%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 +26.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 +6.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.15 -34.73%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.86 +10.2% (new series)
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 391.0 +2.21%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.31 +8.31%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.47 -2.59%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.67 -18.45%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 205.16 unch.
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 135.93 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 34.75 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 42.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.26 +.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .73% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 118.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $91.49/Metric Tonne -.92%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.90 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 45.30 -2.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.20 -4.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.01 -1.0 basis point
  • 53.5% chance of Fed rate hike at June 14 meeting, 60.2% chance at July 26 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -136 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +33 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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