Thursday, May 03, 2018

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Mueller Probe Worries, Earnings Outlooks, Yen Strength, Biotech/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.17 +1.25%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.32 -.28%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.78 +.46%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.62 -1.96%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 72.0 -19.10%
  • Total Put/Call 1.06 +13.98%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 -19.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.36 +1.79%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 403.0 +1.5%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.71 +4.17%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 120.75 -.25 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.17 +1.54%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 156.60 +4.91%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.33 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 53.75 +2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 +2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.61 +.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.83% unch.
  • Yield Curve 46.5 +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 66.50 USD/Metric Tonne -.85%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.7 -1.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -87.70 -9.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.0 -2.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at August 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at September 26 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -147  open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -17 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +48 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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