Friday, May 31, 2019

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Mexico Tariff Concerns, China Trade Deal Fears, Oil Plunge, Homebuilding/Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Falling
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.5 +6.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.84 -.72%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.58 +2.88%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.50 +5.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 52.0 -47.5%
  • Total Put/Call 1.31 +20.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.01 -18.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.61 +4.03%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 600.0 +1.85%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.67 +2.29%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 287.25 +4.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.83 +2.62%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 211.36 +1.14%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.23 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 5.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 16.75 -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.95 +.27%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.34% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 19.5 +4.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.62 USD/Metric Tonne -.74%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.3 +1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.30 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -26.50 -2.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 unch.
  • 51.2% chance of Fed rate cut at July 31st meeting, 73.6% chance of cut at Sept. 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -146 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -160 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -22 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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