Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.0 -12.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.70 +.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.99 -1.86%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.96 -4.12%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 64.0 +1.59%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 -2.78%
  • NYSE Arms .67 -63.59%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.26 -2.23%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 571.0 +6.02%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.91 -3.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 279.75 +2.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.08 +.38%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 202.18 -3.19%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 162.76 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.5 +2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.75 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.08 +.22%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.39% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 21.75 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 91.06 USD/Metric Tonne +.25%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.80 +7.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.50 -3.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.50 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.87 +2.0 basis points
  • 24.9% chance of Fed rate cut at July 31st meeting, 48.0% chance of cut at Sept. 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +103 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +30 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial/biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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