Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.6 -8.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.50 -.06%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 +.11%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.30 -2.89%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 +46.7%
  • Total Put/Call 1.24 +21.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.51 +91.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.07 -1.30%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 525.0 -7.94%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.95 +2.55%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 284.5 +4.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.73 -.18%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 201.41 -1.24%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 162.80 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 12.75 -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 +1.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.16 +.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.39% unch.
  • Yield Curve 20.75 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 92.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.44%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -43.50 -12.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.50 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -29.60 -10.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.85 -2.0 basis points
  • 28.4% chance of Fed rate cut at July 31st meeting, 53.2% chance of cut at Sept. 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -8 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -150 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

No comments: