Monday, May 13, 2019

Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Worries, Global Growth Fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.6 +28.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.58 -.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.22 +5.61%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.78 +13.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 59.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call 1.10 -9.84%
  • NYSE Arms 1.65 +61.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.29 +5.11%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 535.0 +15.9%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 82.57 +4.39%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 277.0 +4.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.35 +2.93%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 207.58 +5.33%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 162.77 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.50 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 11.75 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.95 -.62%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.40% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 21.50 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 91.90 USD/Metric Tonne -3.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -38.30 +9.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.60 +1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.50 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.85 -2.0 basis points
  • 24.9% chance of Fed rate cut at July 31st meeting, 49.6% chance of cut at Sept. 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -326 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -421 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my retail/industrial/biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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