Monday, July 01, 2019

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished China Trade Deal Concerns, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Gaming/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -3.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.15 -.23%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.99 -3.0%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.0 -1.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 85.0 -9.6%
  • Total Put/Call .94 +11.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.10 +48.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.39 -2.05%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 600.0 -.13%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.14 -2.57%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 232.25 -8.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.28 -4.24%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.35 -4.47%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.26 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 5.5 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 24.25 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.25 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.63 unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.12% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 24.50 -.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 120.10 USD/Metric Tonne +.77%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -59.20 +9.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -6.4 -2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -35.50 -3.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -84 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -106 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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