Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:     

• U.S. Proposes Tariffs on Another $4 Billion of EU Goods.

• Trump Says New Round of Trade Talks With China Already Has Begun.

• Trump Says Mexico Tariffs Off the Table After Immigration Help.  

• Hong Kong Leader Condemns Protesters Who Stormed Government Building. 

• Stocks Mixed as Investors Mull Trade, Slowing Data. Stocks opened in mixed fashion on Tuesday as investors mulled the latest headlines on trade and implications of a disappointing set of economic data. Treasuries and the dollar were little changed. Futures on S&P 500 Index fell early on after the U.S. expanded a list of European products that may get hit with tariffs. That’s after the gauge closed at a record high on Monday in the wake of the U.S.-China trade truce. The contracts later recouped most of the drop. Japanese shares opened little changed, while South Korean ones slid. Gold held below $1,400 after tumbling Monday, and crude oil retreated further from $60 a barrel in New York amid continuing concerns about the outlook for global growth. S&P 500 futures were down 0.1% as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index climbed 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 Index closed up more than 1%. Japan’s Topix was little changed. S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.3%.Kospi fell 0.7%.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day 

• Consecutive RBA Cuts, Manufacturing Slump, New Tariffs: Eco Day

• OPEC Extends Output Cuts Into 2020 as Marathon Meeting Ends.

• Bitcoin Tumbles as Cryptocurrency’s 2019 Surge Starts to Waver.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hong Kong Protests Boil Over as Activists Occupy Legislature.

• American Suburbs Swell Again as a New Generation Escapes the City.

• S&P 500 Rises to Record on Trade Truce.

• Iran Says It Breached Nuclear Pact Limits on Enriched Uranium.

• Nike(NKE) Nixes ‘Betsy Ross Flag’ Shoe After Kaepernick Intervenes.

• Trump Praises Mexico Amid Record Detention of Migrants.

• U.S. Drilling Slowdown Triggers Oil Bankruptcy.

Fox News:

• Chuck Schumer faces liberal anger over border bill after Nancy Pelosi backs off House version.

• TODD STARNES: Portland’s mayor has turned his city over to Antifa thugs.

MarketWatch.com:

• Nigam Arora: China trade truce makes a good deal less likely — here’s your stock-market game plan.

• Here are the stock market’s winners and losers in the first half of 2019.

• Old age doesn’t kill economic expansions — and the usual culprits are nowhere in sight.

• Global chip sales decline for fifth straight month.

CNBC:

• Trump says renewed trade talks with China have ‘already begun’.

• A handful of stocks rallied Monday after a US-China trade ceasefire.

• Companies are warning that earnings results are going to be brutal. 

• Health care for undocumented immigrants may ‘haunt’ Dems against Trump, says ex-Sen. Evan Bayh.

Zero Hedge:

• New Chicago Mayor Wants State Taxpayer Bailout Of Chicago Pension Debts.

• AOC Says Border Patrol "Sexually Threatened" Her, Trump Confirms ICE Raids Will Resume Soon.

• US Proposes An Additional $4 Billion In Tariffs On European Imports. 

• Hong Kong's Defiant Chief Executive Condemns Storming Protesters, Ensuring Further Confrontations.

• Female Athlete Alleges Retaliation By Coach Over Complaints About Transgender Policy.

• Biden Electability Plummets Following Debates: Poll.

• All Is Not Well In 'Deep-State' World.

• GoFundMe For Journalist Beaten By Portland Antifa Hits 300% Of Goal In One Day.

• Traders Sell The Trade-Truce News But S&P Holds Record Highs.

Business Insider: 

• The deadly poison sarin was detected in a mailbag at Facebook's offices in California.

• Apple CEO Tim Cook slams a Wall Street Journal report that he's not interested in product design, and it's part of why Jony Ive left.

• China's state-controlled media has completely ignored coverage of Hong Kong protests.

Telegraph:

• Global bond bubble inflates as fearful investors seek safe havens.

• Factories in recession as trade war, eurozone slump and 'no deal' Brexit fears hit home.

• Economy stagnates amid ‘relentless Brexit uncertainty’, survey finds.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.0 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 41.5 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  67.63 -.03%.

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AYI)/2.51

• (GBX)/.96

• (JEF)/.37

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for June are estimated to fall to 17.0M versus 17.3M in May.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking and the Eurozone PPI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.