Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Italy Virus Cases Rise, Fueled by Infections in Lombardy.  

• The Second Virus Shockwave Is Hitting China’s Factories Already.  

• Asia’s Debt-Fueled Boom Threatened By Corporate Credit Meltdown.

• Mexico Downgraded to BBB by S&P on Virus, Oil Price Shocks.

• Stock Rally to Extend in Asia After U.S. Advance: Markets Wrap. Asian stocks climbed after a third straight day of gains on Wall Street, in a tentative sign of optimism among investors encouraged by uprecedented stimulus actions. The S&P 500 rose more than 6% Thursday after the U.S. Senate passed a $2 trillion fiscal package. Equity benchmarks climbed at least 3% in Tokyo and Seoul, and about 2% in Sydney, while U.S. futures saw more modest gains. The MSCI All Country World Index is on course for a 13% rise this week, following a rout that dragged stocks around the globe into bear markets. The dollar stabilized after retreating for three days. Futures on the S&P 500 added 0.6% as of 9:08 a.m. in Tokyo. The S&P 500 rose 6.2% on Thursday. Japan’s Topix Index rose 3.1%. Hang Seng futures added 3.6% earlier. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 2%. Kospi Index jumped 3.6%.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• Balance Sheet Blowout, Jobless Spike, RBA 1-Week of QE: Eco Day.

• Mnuchin Forms Task Force to Confront Mortgage Firms’ Liquidity.

• Winners and Losers in Winners and Losers in Congress’s $2 Trillion Virus Rescue Plan.

• False Bottom or Start of Something Big: On This Rally’s Stamina.  

• Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Tops $5 Trillion for First Time.   

• Oil Set for Weekly Gain as Stimulus Efforts Allay Demand Concern.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Spend Generously, Take Care of Workers: Coronavirus Stimulus Takes Lessons From TARP.

• Big Cruise-Ship Lines Wouldn’t Qualify for Aid Under Stimulus Package.

• China’s Reboot Hits Slow, Rocky Path.

• House Ponders How to Pass Stimulus Without Spreading Coronavirus.

• Nursing Home Staffs Combat Infections and Shortages.

• U.S. Charges Venezuela’s Maduro With Drug Trafficking. 

• Inside a New York ER: ‘We Don’t Know How High the Peak Is Going to Be’. 

• U.S. Moving Forward With Rule to Limit Chips to Huawei.

CNBC.com:

• The coronavirus may be deadlier than 1918 flu: Here’s how it stacks up against other pandemics.

• US now has more coronavirus cases than either China or Italy.

• Dow rallies more than 1,300 points, capping its biggest 3-day surge since 1931.

• GM temporarily cuts pay by 20% for 69,000 salaried workers amid coronavirus pandemic.

• The S&P 500 just hit a level that could spark the next meltdown.

• Many could get a $1,200 stimulus check within three weeks—should you use it to pay off credit card debt?

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: GameStop, Lululemon, KB Home & more.

• Lululemon’s earnings top estimates, but it won’t provide outlook due to coronavirus.

• Retailers shift production to make masks, gowns for health-care workers in coronavirus pandemic.

• Fauci says US ‘can start thinking about’ getting back to normal when coronavirus spread slows.

• ‘They’re putting us all at risk’: What it’s like working in Amazon warehouses amid .coronavirus.

Fox News:

• FOX NEWS POLL: Recession fears mount, but Trump approval ticks up.

• Dem blasts stimulus, blames GOP for not granting checks to all immigrants.

MarketWatch.com:         

• Gold is gearing up for a sustained rally, Goldman says — here’s why.

Zero Hedge:

• Tax-Dodging Cruise Industry Begs For Taxpayer Bailout Amid Collapse In Revenue.

• Coronavirus Rescue Bill Includes $350 Million For "Migration And Refugee Assistance".

• At US Epicenter: NY Parks Bustle, Subway Packed, Social Distancing Defied & Flaunted.

• "I’ve Never, Ever, Ever Seen Anything Like This Before".

• Bankrupt Oil Company Trolls Its Banks, Says They May Fail Too.

• Disaster Looms As Millions Of Americans Set To Lose Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance.

• S&P Futures Explode 40 Points Higher In One Tick On $7 Billion Market On Close Imbalance. 

• Fitch Warns USA's AAA-Rating At "Risk Of Near-Term Negative Action".

• Cuomo Approves 'Splitting' Of Ventilators As Some COVID-19 Patients Stay Intubated For Up To 30 Days.

• Chicago Mayor Warns, Those Who Go Outside To Exercise Risk Arrest.

• Is There Wasteful Spending In The Coronavirus Stimulus Bill? (Spoiler Alert: Bigly!).

• Insanity: Stocks Enter New Bull Market On Day Initial Claims Hit 3.3 Million.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking Coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.0 -7.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 43.5 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  59.46 +.03%.

• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.25%.

• S&P 500 futures -.71%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.74%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Personal  Income for February is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in January.

• Personal Spending for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Jan.

• The PCE Core MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK House Price report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.