Monday, March 30, 2020

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Coronavirus Peak Hopes, Global Stimulus, End-of-Quarter Window-Dressing, Tech/Pharma Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 59.0 -10.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.62 -.96%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.83 +1.23%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 75.5 +2.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call 1.12 +5.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.60 -9.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 111.34 +3.17%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,227.0 -8.97%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 118.47 +5.69%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 197.25 +17.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 146.31 +6.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 357.79 +4.98%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.69 -2.5%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 27.0 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 149.0 +7.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 28.25 +4.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.45 -1.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +6.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .45 -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.55 USD/Metric Tonne -3.79%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.5 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -41.60 +16.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -24.8 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread .95 -1.0 basis point
  • n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +111 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -10 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -39 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my consumer staple/tech/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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