Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Coronavirus Fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Energy/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 53.5 +13.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.53 -.8%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.06 +3.60%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 72.9 +8.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 52.0 -20
  • Total Put/Call 1.36 +14.3%
  • NYSE Arms 2.39 +670.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 115.76 +9.44%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,273.0 +23.3%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 116.31 +.32%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.75 -20.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.50 +7.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 348.13 +11.9%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 171.19 -.29%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.5 -4.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 38.5 -12.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.0 -.93%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .41% unch.
  • Yield Curve .22 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 86.45 USD/Metric Tonne -.49%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 72.30 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.7 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.2 -1.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread .94 -8.0 basis points
  • 50.1% chance of 75.0 basis point Fed rate cut at April 29th meeting, 54.3% chance of 75.0 basis point cut at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -351 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -80 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -140 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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