Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:        
  • How the Coronavirus and Tumbling Oil Prices May Affect Global Growth. Stocks Drop With U.S. Stimulus Plan Still Pending. U.S equity futures retreated and Asian equities opened lower as investors awaited details from the Trump administration on planned stimulus to counter the coronavirus impact. S&P 500 futures fell about 1.5%, following a strong rally on Wall Street. President Donald Trump didn’t appear at a White House briefing on the outbreak after promising a day earlier that he would hold a news conference to announce a “major” economic aid package. The yen clawed back some of a steep overnight retreat, while Japanese and Australian shares opened lower. The S&P 500 Index earlier closed up almost 5% to end a topsy-turvy session, with the U.S. looking at measures including cutting payroll taxes and aiding ailing businesses like airlines and cruise operators. Oil steadied after rising 10% on the back of Monday’s plunge. Japan’s Topix index declined 0.5% as of 8:01 a.m. in Tokyo. South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 0.3%. S&P 500 futures fell 1.5%. The index rose 4.9% on Tuesday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 1.7%.
Zero Hedge:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.0 -3.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 64.0 -7.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  62.59 +.02%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.37%.
  • S&P 500 futures -2.0%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -2.0%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (LK)/-.13
  • (UNFI)/.26
  • (VRA)/.52
After the Close:
  • (SMTC)/.36
  • (ZAGG)/.94
  • (KRO)/.10
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The CPI MoM for Feb. is estimated unch. versus a +.1% gain in Jan.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Jan.
  • Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +2,105,360 barrels versus a +784,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,691,200 barrels versus a -4,339,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,203,200 barrels versus a -4,008,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.09% versus a -1.0% decline prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Statement for Feb. is estimated at -$236.8B versus -$234.0B in Jan.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The UK Trade Balance report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, $24B 10Y T-Note auction, BofA Merrill Refining Conference and the Susquehanna Tech Conference could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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