Friday, February 26, 2021

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Inflation Concerns, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 27.6 -4.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,459.0 -103.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.20 -.42%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.65 +3.9%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.1 -3.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -36.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .86 +8.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.51 +86.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.95 +.29%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 482.21 +1.72%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.69 +1.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 102.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.73 +5.13%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 190.79 +5.0%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 186.47 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.25 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.5 -3.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.25 +1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.55 -.79%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 135.0 +8.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 168.20 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 86.5 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 157.3 -3.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 61.7 -1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +374 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -19 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my energy/industrial/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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