Tuesday, February 02, 2021

Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Vaccine Optimism, Oil Gain, Transport/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.4 -15.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,899.0 +481.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.70 -.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 -1.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.1 -.02%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 -54.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .76 -1.3%
  • NYSE Arms 2.27 +180.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.01 -3.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 510.40 -1.60%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.83 -2.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 114.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.50 -1.79%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 165.47 -3.37%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.40 -.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 15.25 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  66.5 -2.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.42 +.34%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 98.75 +2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 144.15 USD/Metric Tonne -3.71%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 60.50 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 125.4 +1.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 68.70 +4.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 +5.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +113 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -103 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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