Friday, March 19, 2021

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Stable Long-Term Rates, Oil Bounce, Short-Covering, Retail/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.1 -7.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,948.0 -24.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.15 -.07%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 +.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.2 -1.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 +4.0 point
  • Total Put/Call .83 +13.7%
  • NYSE Arms .86 +24.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.55 -1.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 493.36 +.27%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.03 +1.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 96.5 -.25 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.75 -.35%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 181.06 -3.6%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.47 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.25 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  80.0 +1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.94 +.44%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 155.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 148.80 USD/Metric Tonne -7.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.0 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 89.4 -.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.9 -1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -472 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +28 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/energy/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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