Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Higher Long-Term Rates, Dollar Strength, Oil Decline, Tech/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.1 -3.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,968.0 +155.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.68 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.3 +1.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.7 -3.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 144.0 +23.1 points
  • Total Put/Call .75 -12.8%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -29.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.37 +.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 480.32 -.20%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.54 -.78%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 97.0 +.75 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.79 +.06%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 191.66 +2.97%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.75 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.75 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.5 -1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.72 -.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 160.0 +8.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 161.05 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.30 +7.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 182.80 +19.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.0 -2.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -22 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -232 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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