Thursday, March 25, 2021

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on More Dovish Fed Commentary, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.4 +1.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,476.0 -26.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.81 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 -1.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.7 -3.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .89 +3.5%
  • NYSE Arms .59 -58.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.21 +.29%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 495.70 +.22%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.22 +.42%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 97.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.3 -1.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 181.05 +.84%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.65 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.0 -1.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.33 -.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 148.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 153.50 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.10 +2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 151.70 +1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.90 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +140 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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