Stocks Modestly Lower into Afternoon on Global Shutdown Worries, Oil Decline, Technical Selling, Retail/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.6 +3.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,716.0 -192.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.29 -.75%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 +1.3%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.3 +4.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 -8.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .76 +4.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.44 +16.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.13 +.15%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 495.94 +1.25%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.14 -1.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 97.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 -2.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 172.23 +3.87%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.51 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 19.25 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  77.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.0 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.79 -.7%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 152.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 152.20 USD/Metric Tonne -1.87%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.70 -10.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 88.6 +1.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.20 -2.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -140 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +4 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech/industrial/energy sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long