Tuesday, June 22, 2021

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Less Hawkish Fed Commentary, Short-Covering, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.2 -3.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,317.0 +181.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.56 +.54%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 -1.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.2 -.41%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0  -15.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .78 -4.9%
  • NYSE Arms .94 +129.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.17 -.95%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 393.32 +.16%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.4 -2.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 +1.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.09 -.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.10 -.25%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.07 -.43%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 10.0 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.25 -1.0 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.62 +.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 124.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 202.75 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.2 -.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 89.10 -2.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 76.5 +.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +4.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -64 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -66 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my commodity/industrial/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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