Monday, June 21, 2021

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminished Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Dollar Weakness, Oil Gain, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Ever Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.2 -12.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,110.0 +115.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.70 +.43%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 +1.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.3 -4.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 110.0  -2.7 points
  • Total Put/Call .79 -14.1%
  • NYSE Arms .60 -68.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.71 -1.99%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 394.0 -1.2%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.67 -.98%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.25 +1.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.49 -1.02%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.28 +.31%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 10.75 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.25 +1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.44 +.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  • Yield Curve 130.0 -7.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 198.0 USD/Metric Tonne -6.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.5 +1.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 91.50 -24.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 76.3 -2.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +655 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +26 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my commodity/industrial/biotech/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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