Tuesday, June 08, 2021

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.7 +1.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,413.0 -110.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.8 +.12%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -1.3%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.0 -4.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 137.0  +18.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .63 -7.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.4 +8.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.31 +.08%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 413.03 -.44%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.24 -.30%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.19 -.66%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 153.57 -2.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.37 +.38%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 11.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  68.0 +1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.5 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.70 +.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  • Yield Curve 141.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 203.0 USD/Metric Tonne +6.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.6 +.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 130.5 -9.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 63.10 +3.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 -3.0 basis points
  • 95.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 95.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +51 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -65 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/commodity sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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