Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                

• Germany Risks ‘Imminent’ Recession on Gas Cutoff, Deutsche Bank Says.
• Hong Kong Marks 25 Years of Chinese Rule.    
• Colombia Raises Rates by 150 Basis Points in Test for Petro.
• What the Falling Yen Means for Japan’s Trade Partners.
• Stocks Set for Cautious Asia Open Amid Bond Rally: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Posts First Monthly Drop This Year as OPEC+ Hikes Supply.
• Metals Cap Worst Quarter Since 2008 on Global Downturn Angst.
• Bears Picked Right Stocks to Short With Declines Twice the S&P’s.
  
• JPMorgan’s Michele Warns on Recession as Brutal First Half Draws to End.
  
• Michael Burry Thinks We May Be About Halfway Through Market Fall.  
• Celsius Says Its Exploring Strategic Transactions, Restructuring.

Wall Street Journal:

• High Court Limits EPA on Emissions.
• Investors gird for more volatility after a bruising start to 2022
• Crypto Investors Wonder What Else Could Go Wrong.
• Growth Fears Challenge Soaring Oil Prices.
• Cooling Consumer Spending Points to Further Economic Slowdown.
• Tencent, ByteDance Implement Fresh Layoffs Amid China’s Economic Pains.

Fox News:

• New poll reveals which political party is the most patriotic, but national pride sees dramatic downturn.

CNBC.com:

• The market’s worst first half in 50 years has all come down to one thing.
• Big technology stocks like Tesla, Amazon and Microsoft just finished their worst quarter in years.
• Internal Facebook memo warns company must be disciplined, prioritize ruthlessly.
• Micron warns weakening consumer demand will hurt smartphone sales.
• Bitcoin just had its worst month on record.

Zero Hedge:

• The Fed Is Quietly Handing Out $250 Million To A Handful Of Happy Recipients Every Single Day.
• Chip Makers Stall On Building New Semiconductor Plants As Subsidies Bill Languishes.
• "Children Cannot Consent": Teen Who Had Double Mastectomy Regrets 'Gender Journey'.
• Four Men Charged After 53 Migrants Die In Smuggling Disaster.
• DOJ Has VA Suspend All Benefits Of Jan. 6 Prisoner.
• The One Housing Chart That Shows A 'Buyer's Market' Has Returned.
• Still buying the dip?
• Nvidia GPU Prices Plummet As Crypto Mining Craters.
• California Just Leaked The Name, Address Of Every Concealed Carry Licensee In The State.
• States Need To Avoid 'Cures' That Can Make Inflation Worse.
• S&P 500 suffered its worst H1 performance since 1970 - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Biden & G-7 Push World Into "Nightmare Scenario".
• Tesla's Texas Gigafactory Reportedly Outputting 5,000 Vehicles Per Week.
• S&P 500 posts worst half-year since 1970 as recession fears mount - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• The Jaws Of Trade Squeezing The Supply Chain.
• The Astonishing Implications Of Schedule F.
• Micron Plunges After Catastrophic Guidance Confirms Worst Fears.
• First-Half FUBAR: Stocks Worst In 60 Years, Bonds & Bitcoin Worst Ever.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WOW! Joe Biden Confronted on 85% Wrong-Track Number, Record Inflation — Blames US Supreme Court (VIDEO).
• Biden Takes Aim at America’s Largest Oil Field, Threatens to Stop Production, Sending Gas Prices Soaring.
• Abraham Lincoln Bust, Gettysburg Address Plaque Removed From Cornell University Library Because Someone Complained.
• Steve Bannon and The War Room Call for Criminal Referrals Against Cassidy Hutchinson for Numerous Lies During Congressional Testimony (VIDEO).
• Dr. Zev Zelenko Who Saved Thousands of Lives During the COVID Pandemic – Passes Away After Long Battle with Cancer.
• Unhinged Climate Activists Glue Their Hands on Van Gogh Painting in London to Protest Global Warming.
• AOC Calls For Supreme Court to be Abolished After High Court Constrains EPA’s Power to Regulate Greenhouse Gases.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 835,062 Reports(+3,252 from prior week) Through June 17th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 143.75 +7.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 85.25 +2.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.66 -.08%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,509.0 +310.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.3 +.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.41%.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in April.
• ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to fall to 54.5 versus 56.1 in May.
• ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to fall to 79.9 versus 82.2 in May.
  

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for June is estimated to rise to 13.3M versus 12.68M in May.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Manufacturing PMI report and the Eurozone PMI report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.