Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, US Dollar Strength, Alt Energy/Medical Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.6 -1.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,496.0 +52.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.66 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 +.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.4 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 -10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 +9.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 -31.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.39 +1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 368.39 -2.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 336.0 -15.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.66 +1.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 202.0 basis points +2.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.31 -.49%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 272.97 +.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.60 -.31%
  
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,195.4 +5.7%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 46.75 basis points -8.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  120.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.25 -.7%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.08 -.35%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.12% +8.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 27.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 136.65 USD/Metric Tonne +2.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -37.8 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.1 +1.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.6 +7.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 -3.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting

US Covid-19:

• 220 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 13.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +1/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.8%(-.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -37 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -131 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long