Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, End-of-Quarter Window Dressing, Technical Buying, Medical/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.5 +.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .84% -66.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,622.0 -269.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.67 -.47%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.1 +.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 142.0 +54.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.07 +7.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.9 +41.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 99.93 +1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 491.46 +4.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 421.0 +37.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 127.57 +2.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 135.23 +4.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 338.28 +.48%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.42 +.26%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,453.53 +9.1%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.25 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 49.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 basis points -2.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  137.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.67 -.06%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.93 -.05%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.72% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 3.25 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.45 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -68.3 +.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.9 +11.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.8 -.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -10.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 66.2%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 48.0%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 236 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 14.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -14/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -77.2%(+.6 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -30 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -111 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my in my medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long