Stocks Higher into Final Hour on FOMC Commentary, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.5 -6.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .99% -30.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,455.0 -190.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.86 -.90%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 13.2 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.8 -3.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 909.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 -5.5%

• NYSE Arms .96 +21.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 94.4 -4.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 421.73 +1.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 366.0 +9.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 117.6 -3.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 217.0 basis points -25.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.59 -3.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 313.40 -5.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.24 +.09%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 7,365.16 +24.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.75 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 4.75 basis points -6.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  131.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.05 +.15%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.78 +.44%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.72% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 11.5 basis points (2s/10s) +7.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -49.0 -3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.4 -2.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.7 +3.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +9.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at November 2nd meeting

US Covid-19:

• 225 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 13.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -1/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.9%(+.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +144 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +40 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my emerging market shorts and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long