Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Global Stocks Dive Into Bear Market as Risk Appetite Evaporates.
• Property Values Fall Across US, Europe on Bite From Inflation.
• Europe's Plan to Quit Russian Fuel Plunges Pakistan Into Darkness.
• Stocks, Bonds Roiled by Fears of Bigger Fed Hikes: Markets Wrap.  
• Traders Brace for 4% Peak in Fed Rate as Bond Rout Intensifies.
• Inflation Data Likely Push Fed to Consider 75 Basis-Point Hike.
  
• Wall Street Floats 100 Basis-Point Fed Hike as Inflation Stings.
  
• Influencer-Approved Bull Market Sputters to End on Hawkish Fed.
• Crypto Billionaire Fortunes Vanish as Quickly as They Were Made.
• Crypto Investors Who Bought the Hype Are Getting Hit Hardest.
• MicroStrategy’s Losses on Its Bitcoin Bet Near $1 Billion.
• Bored Ape NFTs Face Steep Declines in Broad Cryptoasset Rout.
• ‘Bear-Market Blues’ Test Mettle of Most Devout Bitcoin Holders.  
• Elon Musk to Address Twitter Staff For First Time Since Deal.  
• JPMorgan, Goldman Halt Russian Debt Trading After US Tightens Ban.  
• Tampon Manufacturers Say They’re Working to Address Reported Shortages.  
• Murder-Suicides by Pilots Are Vexing Airlines as Deaths Mount.  
• Amazon Builds Property Empire, Quietly Buying Land Across the US.   
• Big Tech’s Floor Collapses on Renewed Fears of Bigger Rate Hikes.
• Wall Street Sours on S&P as Margin Woes Rattle Corporate America.

Wall Street Journal:

• Index falls 3.9%, Dow skids 876 points on inflation, rate fears.
• Bond Yields Surge Ahead of Fed Meeting.
• Bitcoin Price Falls Below $23,000, an 18-Month Low.
• Coinbase Shares Succumb to Crypto Rout.
• Climate-Change Censorship: Phase Two. Now Gina McCarthy tells Big Tech to stifle debate global-warming policy responses.
• The Cost of Wishful Thinking on Inflation Is Going Up Too. First it wasn’t real. Then it was ‘transitory.’ Now we’re told the Fed will cure it with a few rate hikes. 
• How Fed and Biden Administration Got Inflation Wrong.
• Lawmakers Push for New Powers to Block U.S. Investments in China.
• Without Cheap Russian Energy, Some European Factories Must Close.
• Prologis to Buy Duke Realty in $26 Billion Deal, Including Debt.
• LNG Prices Will Steam Up Again.

Fox News:

• Biden advisor surprises with claim about White House's inflation strategy.

CNBC.com:

• 10-year Treasury yield rockets above 3.39% in biggest move since March 2020.
• Latest Shanghai quarantines add more pressure to global supply chain.
• GM’s stock closes below IPO price for first time since October 2020.
• The crypto industry just had one of its worst days ever — Here’s what happened.
• 1980s-era rate hikes will create more market turmoil, Canaccord’s Tony Dwyer predicts.
• Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman sees 50-50 odds of recession ahead.
• BlockFi, the Peter Thiel-backed crypto start-up, cuts 20% of its staff as bitcoin plunges.
• Bitcoin crashes 15%, Celsius halts withdrawals, and crypto’s ‘dot-com bubble’: CNBC Crypto World.

MarketWatch:                      

• 22 things you should know about bear markets.
• The S&P 500 just confirmed a bear market: What investors need to know.
  
• Stocks sink as inflation fears trigger shock waves: What investors need to know about stagflation.
• BlackRock isn’t buying the dip as volatility climbs in sinking stock market.  
• JP Morgan, Goldman economists now expect Fed to raise rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday.  
• Oracle stock jumps 12% on strong cloud revenue.  
• Bitcoin tumbles through $24,000 in crypto crash. This chart shows how much worse a selloff could get.   
• Binance blocks bitcoin withdrawals as crypto prices crater.  
• Here’s how much money you would’ve lost if you bought crypto during Matt Damon’s ‘Fortune Favors the Brave’ commercial.  
• There’s another reason companies should tread carefully with political influence — the stock market is watching.

Zero Hedge

• The Great Celsius Implosion: What Went Wrong And How Much More Will Bitcoin Drop.
• Japan On Verge Of Systemic Collapse With "Dramatic, Unpredictable Non-Linearities" In Financial Markets, DB Warns.
• CNN, CBS, NBC, ABC Sunday Shows Don't Cover Attempted Murder Of Supreme Court Justice. 
• Xi Widens Legal Basis For PLA Troop Deployments Amid Soaring Taiwan Tensions.
• Ohio Passes New Law To Expedite Armed Teacher Training To Harden Schools.
• US Official Admits Russian Energy Sales Outpacing Pre-War Levels.
• Pelosi's Court: How The Jan. 6 Committee Undermined Its Own Legitimacy.
• Carnage!
• Over Twenty Million Households Struggle To Pay Energy Bills, It Will Get Worse.
• Trucker Strike In South Korea Sparks Economic Turmoil, Risks Global Spillover.
• On the MOVE.
• Stocks and bonds sold off amid ongoing inflation woes - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• JPMorgan Now Sees Fed Hiking 75bps On Wednesday, Sees "Risk" Of 100bps.
• Scramble for Dollars as Stocks, Bonds, and Beyond Crater - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Snyder: The Worst Economic Gloom In 50 Years.
• "Panic": Yields Soar After WSJ "Fed Leaker" Says Odds Rising Of 75bps Rate Hike.

Newsmax:  

• Russia's Oil Profits Skyrocket Despite Embargo.
• Biden Weighs Suspension of Gas Tax as Long as Russia's War Lasts.  
• RNC Chair McDaniel: High Gas Prices 'Intentional' Under Biden.
• Sen. Blackburn: Biden 'Trying to Crush' Oil Industry.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• President Trump Predicted All of What We’re Seeing Today from the Biden Administration Before It Happened (VIDEO).
• Hey, Bill Barr!… BREAKING: Surveillance Video Shows Man Wearing Street Clothes Exiting Passenger Seat of Post Office Truck In Detroit…Dumps Stack of Ballots In Dropbox TWICE! [VIDEO]. 
• Illegal Aliens Set to Receive Driver’s Licenses in Massachusetts After State Legislature Overrides Governor’s Veto – 17 States Now Allow Illegals to Get Gov’t Issued Photo ID.
• Police Shoot and Kill Gunman at Texas Summer Camp Who Fired into Locked Classroom with Kids Inside.
• JUST IN: Napa County Authorities Release Paul Pelosi Mugshot After DUI Arrest.
• They Don’t Care About America’s Starving Babies: Bumbling Biden Press Secretary Has No Answer When Asked About Update on Resolving Infant Formula Shortages.
• Flashback: Former AG Barr Shut Down Investigations into a Trailer Load of 288,000 Ballots into PA from New York in 2020 Election – Barr Refused to Provide Whistleblower Protection – Now the USPS Won’t Provide Investigation Report – What Gives?
• Christina Aguilera Wears Green Rhinestone Strap-On While Performing at LA’s All-Ages ‘Pride in the Park’ (VIDEOS).
• Bidenomics: Gas Prices Hit ANOTHER All-Time High on Monday at $5.014/Gallon — 33rd All-Time Record in the Last 35 Days and STILL CLIMBING.
• Here We Go: Canada to Introduce a Mandatory Monkeypox Quarantine – Cities Are Now Offering Vaccination.
• JUST IN: Triple Vaxxed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Infected with Covid… AGAIN.
• YouTube Stars Are Beginning To Turn On Biden, Showing A Younger Generation Is Fed Up With His Poor Leadership. 
• The Number Of Transgender Youth Is On The Rise, Mostly Youth In Democrat Led States.

 The Epoch Times:

• EXCLUSIVE: Arizona Election Worker Details Voter Fraud Investigation.
• High Gas Prices an Indictment of Recent Energy Policy High Gas Prices an Indictment of Recent Energy Policy.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 829,308 Reports(+3,855 from prior week) Through June 3rd, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -3.0% to -2.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.0 +16.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 86.75 +10.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.61 -.04%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,610.0 +27.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.7 -.74%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.39%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.56%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May is estimated to fall to 93.0 versus 93.2 in April.
  

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for May is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.5% gain in April.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in April. 
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Industrial Production report, German ZEW Index, weekly US retail sales reports, Deutsche Bank Auto Industry Conference, CSFB Communications Conference, Oppenheimer Consumer Growth/E-Commerce Conference, Deutsche Bank Consumer Conference, (ANF) investor day, (SNOW) investor day and the RBC Fin Tech Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.