Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Debt Ceiling Deal Optimism, US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, AI Stock Frenzy, Tech/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.9 -6.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.12%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.5 +2.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 158.2 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 -.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 26.1 -7.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -5.8%

• NYSE Arms .82 -28.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.9 -2.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 384.8 -1.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 420.0 -4.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.5 -3.6% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 313.5 -2.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.6 -.18%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 250.1 -2.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.6 -.2%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 19.5 basis points +12.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.0 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 191.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 718.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 91.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.0 +.25%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.24% -8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 24.5 euros/megawatt-hour  -3.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.0 +15.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -46.7 -.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.6 -1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) -3.0% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.98 +.01:  Growth Rate +2.4% unch., P/E 18.3 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 200.31 +.28: Growth Rate +31.6% +2.4 percentage points, P/E 34.5 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.09 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.63 +10.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -76.5 basis points (2s/10s) -7.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.90% -99.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% +6.0 basis points: CPI YoY +4.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 54.2%(+4.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 47.1%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +623 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +15 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +36 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long