Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Tech/Medical Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.4 +2.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .44%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.2 +.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.3 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.74 -.71%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.3 +2.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .84 -18.5%

• NYSE Arms .67 -10.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.08 +1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 411.80 +.69%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 426.0 +11.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.50 +1.5% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 387.14 +2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 193.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.6 +1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 253.28 +1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 -.34%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 15.5 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 -3.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 172.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 714.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 -.19%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.22% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.8 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.3 unch.
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.8 +1.8 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.93 -.04:  Growth Rate +2.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .03 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.35 +20.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -50.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.75% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 58.5%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 47.0%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -2 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +19 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +62 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/utility sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long