Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Diminished Regional Bank Contagion Fears, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.2 +1.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .72%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.5 +3.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.9 +.38%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.4 -5.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.5 -4.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 -2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .89 unch.

• NYSE Arms .78 -29.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.9 +.05%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 415.83 -.77%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 420.0 -17.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.07 -.42% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 382.64 -.26%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.73 -.49%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 257.39 +3.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.22 -.46%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 16.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 174.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 711.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 93.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.14% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.55 USD/Metric Tonne -.46%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.9 -8.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -24.7 -3.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.3 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(457 of 500 reporting) -3.2% +.7 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.09 +.14:  Growth Rate +2.2% -.2 percentage point, P/E 18.1 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 198.85 +.33: Growth Rate +28.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.03 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.55 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -49.75 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.75% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.14% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 57.7%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 44.5%(-3.6 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +259 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +42 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +71 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long