Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Debt Ceiling Agreement Hopes, FANG+ Stock Frenzy, Technical Buying, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .79%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.9 +3.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 156.3 +.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 +1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 29.5 -3.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 +19.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .71 -26.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.20 +79.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.87 -1.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 411.60 -.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 447.0 +10.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.8 -3.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 339.70 -6.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.2 -1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 257.35 -.24%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.8 -.62%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 170.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 714.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 93.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.1 -.49%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.24% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.8 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.1 +4.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.4 -.1 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.0 +1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(467 of 500 reporting) -3.2% +.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.31 +.05:  Growth Rate +2.3% unch., P/E 18.3 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 199.61 +.25: Growth Rate +28.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.9 +1.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .16 +7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.48 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -61.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.89% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 61.4%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 49.8%(+6.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +206 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long