Monday, March 18, 2024

Stocks Higher into Close on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Nvidia AI Conference, Technical Buying, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.3 -.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .33 -52.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.1 +2.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.7 -.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.2 +.65%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.5 +.5% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 143.0 +9.0
  • Total Put/Call .90 +13.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.14 +16.3%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$4.5M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.2 -1.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 286.1 -.98%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 255 -7
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.6 -.7% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 179.2 -.57%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 122.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.3 +1.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 165.2 -.78%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 114.2 -1.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.04%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 151.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 808.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.8 -.41%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.8 euros/megawatt-hour +6.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.0 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +16.5% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 248.68 +.23:  Growth Rate +11.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.82% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +55.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 316.98 +.17: Growth Rate +31.9% unch., P/E 31.2 -.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.12 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -40.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 51.9% -4.6 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.33% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 96.8%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 56.1%(+.9 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -265 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -31 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +267 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

No comments: