Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Diminished China Economy Fears, Technical Buying, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.9 -8.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .68 n/a
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.4 +3.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.7 +.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.8 -13.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 -5.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 -2.9%

• NYSE Arms .97 +44.8%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$13.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.9 -1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 297.0 -1.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 276 -8
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.0 -1.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 186.8 -2.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.9 -.06%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.0 -1.1%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 113.6 -3.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 146.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 819.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 63.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.0 -.17%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 24.8 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.0 +2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.2 +1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.3 +1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +7.9% -.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 248.06 +.07:  Growth Rate +11.1% unch., P/E 20.8 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.82% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +55.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 316.11 +.02: Growth Rate +31.6% unch., P/E 31.2 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 -9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.05 +1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -44.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.5% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 61.0% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% +6.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.33% +21.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 88.8%(+7.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 62.2%(+2.6 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +93 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +31 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/transport/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long