Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Quarter-End Rotation, Short-Covering, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.8 -3.0%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .38 +13.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.8 +1.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 177.8 -.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.4 +1.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.6 +2.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 -32.0
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .92 -13.2%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$325.3M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.2 -1.9%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 284.4 +.5%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 286 +2
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.1 -1.1%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 188.2 -.25%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.4 +.04%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 169.2 -.41%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 117.6 +.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.3%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 785.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.7 euros/megawatt-hour +2.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.7 -.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.8 -2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.7 +.4 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(15 of 500 reporting) +47.7% +7.5 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 250.04 +.19:  Growth Rate +12.0% unch., P/E 20.9 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.64 +.29: Growth Rate +29.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.1 -.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.11 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.05 -2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -37.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.1% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 56.7% +.7 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.41% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 63.5%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 48.1%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -332 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +270 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/industrial/transport sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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