Monday, September 30, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @realDonaldTrump
  • @kylenabecker
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @overton_news
  • @Nerdy_Addict  
  • @nicksortor
  • @TheThe1776
  • @dhruv2038
  • Last image of a wife and husband in Asheville, NC sheltering from the flood on a roof. The roof would soon collapse, causing them and their 6 year old grandchild to drown. Their daughter and mother of the child took the photograph. When the roof collapsed, she got wedged between debris and was able to be rescued an hour later. And things are way way worse in Burnsville. These pictures need to reach people. (pic)
  • @CL4WS_OUT
  • @bennyjohnson
  • Nightmarish, deadly disaster zones across 5 states. Many millions without power. Thousands missing or presumed dead. Kamala completely paralyzed. Media silent because chaos is bad optics for the regime. They spent hundreds of billions in Ukraine - won’t lift a finger for America. (pic)
  • @FFAFamily
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 59.25 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.1 USD/Metric Tonne -2.5%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.7 +1.0%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 +.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Close Modestly Higher on Quarter-End Window Dressing, China Stimulus Hopes, Technical Buying, Financial/Utility Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.63% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.0 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.8 +5.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -56.8 +1.3 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.7 +.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(15 of 500 reporting) +26.9% -1.5 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.60 -.10:  Growth Rate +14.2% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.65% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.69 +.64: Growth Rate +28.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.2 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .76 -5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .70 -6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 14.5 basis point (2s/10s) -4.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.08% +15.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 62.6 -.3 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% -19.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 47.9%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 45.4%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -296 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +213 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/biotech/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.7% 2) Construction -1.9% 3) Semis -1.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • AXTA, TRIN, KRNT, AU, MTN, ACHC, MEG, GM, GCT, MU, XPO, XPEV, ULTA, GNTX, GSBD, VIST, ANF, HPK, SVCO, GDS, YY, BBAR, GATO, LEU, AAP, ESTA, KALV, DAVE, STVN, COIN, IGMS, SATS, SMR, STLA, PRTA and HRTG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IQ 2) PAYX 3) FUTU 4) BEKE 5) JETS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) STLA 2) GM 3) DAVA 4) CRWD 5) LULU
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) PPA 3) IYF 4) GINN 5) IBB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Electric Vehicles +3.9% 2) Digital Health +1.2% 3) Airlines +.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CAPR, JKS, FUTU, NOAH, TAL, ZK, SDA, PGY, RPD, CORT, DJT, CPF, ZTO, DQ, ACMR, ZIM, ASPN, CSIQ, CPRI, ICUI and EDU
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TAL 2) TIGR 3) ITOS 4) AHR 5) MCHI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) EMKR 2) AQST 3) CORT 4) ZIM 5) NIO
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLU 2) XOP 3) IGV 4) XRT 5) VGT
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AYI)/4.27
  • (MKC)/.67
  • (PAYX)/1.14
  • (UNFI)/-.08
After the Close: 
  • (CALM)/3.36
  • (LW)/.72
  • (NKE)/.52
  • (RGP)/.01
Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

  • Construction Spending MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in July. 
  • JOLTS Job Openings for Aug. is estimated to fall to 7660K versus 7673K in July.
  • ISM Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to rise to 47.5 versus 47.2 in Aug.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Sept. is estimated to fall to 53.5 versus 54.0 in Aug.

Afternoon:

  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 15.68M versus 15.13M in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

  • (SMCI) 10-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The VP debate, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, Fed's Cook speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q update, API weekly crude oil stock report, weekly US retail sales reports, Dallas Fed PCE for Aug., Dallas Fed Services Revenues for Sept., Texas Services Sector Outlook for Sept., Wolfe Utilities/Midstream/Clean Energy Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +11.6% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.7 -.1
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 45.0% of Issues Advancing, 52.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .82 unch.
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$176.4M
  • 131 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
  • 61.1% (+.02%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 -2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.4 +4.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 227.3 -.51%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,781.5 +.22%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 74.0 (GREED) +6.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.92 -25.0%
  • Vix 16.7 -1.5%
  • Total Put/Call .76 unch.

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @rawsalerts
  • @TPostMillennial
  • @HannahGoetztv
  • @chuckcallesto
  • @rondeauLivia
  • @nicksortor
  • @DMichaelTripi
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • Biolab Facility up in Flames in Conyers, Georgia. • The initial fire was caused when water from a “malfunctioning sprinkler” came into contact with a water-reactive chemical, leading to a “chemical reaction” and a fire on the roof of the plant. Despite initial containment efforts, the fire reignited, escalating the situation. (video)
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @KanekoaTheGreat
  • @Kanthan2030
  • @PeterSweden7
  • @FrankLuntz
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @TonySeruga
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 59.25 +.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 110.6 USD/Metric Tonne +8.4%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.2 +.5%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 -.8%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.16%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Friday, September 27, 2024

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CCL)/1.17
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

  • The MNI Chicago PMI for Sept. is estimated to rise to 46.4 versus 46.1 in Aug.

10:30 am EST

  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to -10.6 versus -9.7 in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

  • (SMCI) 10-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, end of 3Q, (AFRM) investor meeting, (RMD) investor day and the (FRPT) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +8.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 +1.9
  • 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
  • 72.4% of Issues Advancing, 25.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .90 -2.2%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$194.5M
  • 193 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
  • 62.4% (+4.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 68.0 +1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.6 +.3%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 228.5 -.12%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,710.6 -1.0%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 68.0 (GREED) -3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.7 +.8%
  • Vix 15.8 -4.7%
  • Total Put/Call .86 +11.7%

Thursday, September 26, 2024

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @annvandersteel
  • @TomiLahren
  • @megynkelly
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @JesseBWatters
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @catturd2 
  • @RepTiffany
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @jackunheard
  • BREAKING: The Coca Cola boycott is officially happening. Their new custom website allows the use of "Harris 2024" but prohibits "Trump 2024" due to it being deemed "political in nature" or "offensive." This is election interference. People have also reported that you can use the name "Allah", but not "Jesus" because they restrict "religious figures" to not offend anyone. Last time I checked, "Allah" is a religious figure.
  • @BoLoudon
  • @bennyjohnson
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 58.5 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne +2.3%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.3 +1.6%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.26%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.
  • S&P 500 futures unch.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on China Stimulus Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Airlines Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 +.23%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.61% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.9 USD/Metric Tonne +2.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.3 +7.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.6 +.5 basis point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.6 +1.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +28.4% +23.0 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.70 +.08:  Growth Rate +14.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.05 +.32: Growth Rate +27.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.3 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .76 +11.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 16.75 basis point (2s/10s) -5.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.93% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 62.9 -.5 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 50.5%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 44.7%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +536 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +490 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +203 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -3.2% 2) Energy -1.4% 3) REITs -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BKR, DVN, OVV, PAA, OKE, TDW, QNST, VIST, FANG, NBR, CRTO, CLDX, AHH, ARIS, MMYT, CNXC and SMCI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) INFN 2) SHEL 3) BB 4) ABR 5) STNE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SMCI 2) CNXC 3) PGY 4) SONO 5) COP
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLI 3) KRE 4) XLV 5) IAI