Thursday, January 22, 2026

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript 
  • @LaraLogan
  • @RenzTom
  • @MikeBenzCyber
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @timburchett 
  • What could go wrong with Republicans giving Victoria Nuland's private CIA $315 million, right after she ran the CIA branch of the State Dept under Joe Biden? We are so compromised.
  • @JamesOKeefeIII
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @WhiteCoatWaste
  • @NicHulscher
  • @elonmusk
  • @insatiablevine
  • @DawnsMission
  • @ElectionWiz 
  • @TonySeruga
  • @Shilohmarx
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%. 
  • Gold 4,947.3 USD/t oz. +.7%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.81 +.24%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.27 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 101.8 -.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.24% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.67% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 +.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.23%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.18%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Diminished US/Greenland Angst, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.4 -1.1%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.21 -5.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.2 -2.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 125.1 -.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.2 +.5
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.2 +7.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.4 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.9 -3.0 points 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(57 of 500 reporting) +17.1% -1.0 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.30 +.13:  Growth Rate +16.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.18% -12.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +40.2% +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 491.47 -.23: Growth Rate +19.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 31.0 +.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +13.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 63.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.8 +.4% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.9% -1.4 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.4% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.25% +1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.87 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 84.1% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 71.9%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +440 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +43 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Medical Equipment -1.4% 2) Homebuilding -.9% 3) Energy -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CGON, SONY, TECK, HBAN, CLS, AXGN, RSI, BIOA, KTOS, LEGN, UCTT, GE, FIGR, MKC, OFG, ABT, ORI and INSP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FIVN 2) HSBC 3) CSX 4) OGN 5) FXI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MKC 2) GE 3) ABT 4) LYFT 5) MBLY
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLP 2) XLC 3) FXU 4) MAGS 5) XLU

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +3.9% 2) Alt Energy +3.7% 3) Telecom +2.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RGC, CRML, IMSR, USAR, RDW, SCZM, EGBN, CRVS, HYMC, ORN, UAMY, CORT, JANX, NVTS, RCAT, PSNL, TEO, ASTS, SA, LMND, SSRM, METC, NGD, CDE, NGD, GRAL, GLSI, MUX, BEAM, DNLI, DSGN, PPTA, NTLA, AVBP, VITL, DNA, OUST, LENZ, EXK, NN, CRSP, GLSI, DNTH, CGEM, UUUU, RUN, HL, ANET, DBVT, ADTN, MP, AG, FCEL, SKE, ACHC, GLDD, PAAS, AEHR, NG, UMAC, LOB, DDOG, ROCK, SDGR, AUGO, BRZE, KRMN, STNE, AMPX, RGNX, PCVX, FIG, FIVN, ALKT, LPTH, GME, NTRS, VELO, WIX, SPIR, PTRN, AEVA, SBSW, MAZE, META, DCOM, ANGI, ARM, BABA, SMR, TLK, KMI, LASR, NPB, UEC, KGC, EOSE, VICR, ADSK, PNTG, BILI, FVRR, MT, AVO, PENN, CACI, AD and AAUC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) NWL 2) ARBE 3) FNKO 4) AS 5) BARK 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ANET 2) KRMN 3) CORT 4) GLSI 5) VG
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) KRE 3) FBT 4) XLF 5) ARKK
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BAH)/1.29
  • (SLB)/.74
  • (WBS)/1.53 
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Release 

9:45 am EST

  • The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Jan. is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 51.8 in Dec.
  • The S&P Global US Services PMI for Jan. is estimated to rise to 52.9 versus 52.5 in Dec.
  • The S&P Global US Composite PMI for Jan. is estimated to rise to 53.0 versus 52.7 in Dec.

10:00 am EST

  • Leading Index for Nov. is estimated to fall by -.2% versus a -.3% decline in Oct.
  • Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for Jan. 

11:00 am EST

  • The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for Jan. is estimated at 3.0 versus 3.0 in Dec. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Bloomberg Jan. US Economic Survey, Dallas Fed PCE Index for Nov., weekly US Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +5.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.7 +1.2
  • 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
  • 70.9% of Issues Advancing, 27.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .87 -34.1%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$196.6M
  • 290 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
  • 72.1% (+1.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 64.5 +4.6
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 32.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 10.0% -2.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 12.0% unch.
  • US strikes Iran by June 30th 63.0% +3.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 102.7 +1.1%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 411.0 -4.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 266.9 +.9%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 155.4 +.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 54.0 (NEUTRAL) +6.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.1 -26.0%
  • Vix 15.4 -9.2%
  • Total Put/Call .70 -12.5%


Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @RenzTom
  • @glennbeck
  • @TheSCIF
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @WellsJorda89710
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • President Donald J. Trump just posted this video explaining how YOUR Country is being destroyed right now to ensure a Future Dictatorship. It’s all by design!!
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @JamesOKeefeIII
  • @bennyjohnson
  • China Is Launching An All Out ATTACK On Our Election Systems Through Birthright Citizenship, Over 1 MILLION Communists Will Vote In 2030. Peter Schwiezer breaks down EXACTLY how it operates: "They've created an industrial scale model to exploit birthright citizenship in this country. Somebody is in the US at the time. They give birth. That child is automatically given U.S. citizenship." "Roughly 100,000 Chinese nationals a year have been born in the US. They are then taken back to China, raised in China, going to CCP schools. When they turn 18, they're able to vote, donate to political campaigns, get government jobs in the US." "The first wave of this will start cresting in 2030. When people say they wanna be part of the American dream, immigrate, assimilate. No, it's been weaponized by these foreign actors, and China is particularly effective at doing so." (video)
  • @CynicalPublius
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @AndrewCFollett  
  • @TonySeruga
  • @XFreeze
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.0 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.01%. 
  • Gold 4,787.9 USD/t oz. -1.0%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.16 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 102.3 +.7%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.25% +1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.70% -4.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.9%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.22%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.31%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.42%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.