Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @epsteinsearchin
  • Epstein tracked Jared Kushner in real time. Security clearance fights. Bailout attempts. Chief of staff rumors. 18 documents forwarded to jeevacation@gmail.com. Why was Epstein monitoring the president's son-in-law? (pic)
  • FBI forced open Epstein's safe. Diamonds. Cash. CDs. Hard drives. A warrant issue made them leave. When they came back, it was empty. His accountant had staff pack it into suitcases. That man testifies today. (pic)
  • Federal prosecutors wrote 162 pages of memos on Epstein co-conspirators they could charge. The corporate prosecution memo was "never discussed." Another memo "hasn't been discussed in three weeks." No one was charged. (pic)
  • @nogps1
  • @TheSCIF
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @truthbombprints
  • @FertilizerWeek1
  • @VigilantFox
  • REPORT: Florida is now barreling toward a digital ID system, and the countdown has already begun. In just 30 days, tech companies could be forced to verify the identities of millions of users, a move critics warn could quietly erase online anonymity across the state. For months, Governor Ron DeSantis publicly blasted digital ID, warning it would allow governments to control citizens and track their lives online. He even said such a system would “hit a brick wall in Florida.” Now Florida’s own law may be opening that door.
  • @TrustDML
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @jeffreytucker
  • @nicksortor
  • @disclosetv
  • @silvertrade
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @WallStMav
  • @EnergyAbsurdity
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.0 +5.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 48.25 +3.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%. 
  • Crude Oil 93.40/bbl. +7.0% 
  • Gold 5,173.3 USD/t oz. -.1%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.80 -.07%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.73 -.09%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 97.6 -.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.23% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.47% +2.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.9 +4.0%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.55%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.81%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.81%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and transport shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Oil Gain, Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 +2.3%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.4 +.3% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .22 -9.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.0 +4.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 138.7 +.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 78.8 +2.2% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.1 -.1
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.4 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.70 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.5 +.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +13.7% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.93 +.35:  Growth Rate +17.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.77% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 524.71 +.62: Growth Rate +31.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.5 -.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .30 +16.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 57.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.5 unch. 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.0 euros/megawatt-hour +5.5% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.9% -2.6 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.1% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.20% +5.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.46 +20.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 87.1% (+.9 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 63.8%(+5.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -440 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +38 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.7% 2) Social Media -1.8% 3) Regional Banks -1.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SYK, ARES, CRSP, TEAM, PCOR, BETA, SIG, CAG, IMTX, OCS, FIGR, ECO, UPST, BILI, SEDG, GRPN, DHT, GRO, AVAV, IFF, AMRX, INFQ, BLLN, ALOY, KSS, ORN, GNK, ZVRA, UAMY, LPG, FICO, BWLP, FWRD, HMY and CDRE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KOS 2) DG 3) TTEK 4) CAG 5) CPB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FWRD 2) BWEN 3) KOS 4) AVAV 5) CPB
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) XLC 3) IYW 4) COPX 5) XRT

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Energy +2.7% 2) Computer Hardware +1.3% 3) Agriculture +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • NVTS, PZZA, HIMS, NBIS, VELO, ANRO, PRCT, TSSI, UNFI, CRWV, DOCN, WOLF, ORCL, ALAB, FSLY, IREN, UNF, CF, OUST, BNTX, SERV, PTNR, VG, AOSL, KLAR, PI, IPI, PSIX, AXTI, RCAT, YPF, CORZ, AAOI, AMPX, AESI, PBR, EC, UMAC, ANAB, RUN, NTSK, PRE, WULF, MEOH, MNTN, SGRY, BP, OXY, MNTN, CVE, FLNC, LUNR, WBI, LASR, NOG, DAR, INR and TASK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) UMC 2) OCGN 3) ASX 4) PZZA 5) GBTC 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DOMO 2) NBIS 3) PZZA 4) HIMS 5) OCGN
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLK 2) XLF 3) KRE 4) XME 5) XLP
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (DKS)/.23
  • (DG)/1.66
  • (GIII)/.59
  • (OLLI)/1.39 
After the Close: 
  • (ADBE)/5.87
  • (LEN)/.95
  • (RBRK)/-.11
  • (ULTA)/8.09
  • (ZUMZ)/1.08 
Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

  • The Trade Balance for Jan. is estimated at -$66.0B versus -$70.3B in Dec.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 215K versus 213K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1850K versus 1868K prior.
  • Housing Starts for Jan. is estimated to fall to 1341K versus 1404K in Dec.
  • Building Permits for January is estimated to fall to 1410K versus 1455K prior. 

12:00 pm EST

  • 4Q Household Change in Net Worth. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, 30Y Bond auction, IEA monthly report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, JPMorgan Gaming/Lodging/Restaurant/Leisure Management Access Forum, UBS Consumer/Retail Conference, (VMC) investor day, (JLL) investor meeting, (FFIV) annual meeting and the BofA Information/Business Services Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +1.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.3 +.5
  • 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
  • 36.3% of Issues Advancing, 61.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .99 -22.7%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$325.7M
  • 30 New 52-Week Highs, 60 New Lows
  • 53.9% (-3.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 36.0 -7.0
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 43.0% unch.
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 9.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st 49.0% +2.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 98.4 +1.3%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 +5.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 526.0 -5.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.7 +.4%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 142.3 -.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 27.0 (FEAR) -4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 1.1 -19.5%
  • Vix 25.6 +2.5%
  • Total Put/Call .88 -7.4%

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +3.0% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.5 -1.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%. 
  • Crude Oil 83.68/bbl. +.3% 
  • Gold 5,208.8 USD/t oz. -.7%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.83 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.84 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 97.6 +.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.14% -1.0 basis points.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.45% +1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.54 -1.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.43%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.43%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and transport shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Oil Shock Fears, Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Healthcare/Defense Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.0 -.6%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.7 +.5% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -2.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .31 +2.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.1 -6.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 137.2 -1.7%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 77.0 -19.6% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.4 +.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.70 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.0 +.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(494 of 500 reporting) +13.7% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.58 +.27:  Growth Rate +16.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.0 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.77% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 524.09 +.71: Growth Rate +31.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.8 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .14 +4.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 56.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.61 +1.0% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.4 euros/megawatt-hour -16.0% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.5% +2.2 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.1% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% +4.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.26 -8.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 85.1% (-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 59.3%(-3.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +722 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -26 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +81 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long