Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• China Tensions Spill Over as Europe Moves Toward Biden’s Side.
• South Korea’s Inflation Accelerates to Fastest Since 2017.  
• China’s UN Envoy Calls on Biden to Ease North Korea Pressure.
  
• It’s Not Just India. New Virus Waves Deluge Developing Countries.
  
• Mexico Hits Remittances Record in March as U.S. Stimulus Flows.
• Stocks in Asia to Open Up; Dollar, Yields Declined: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Rises With Growing Reopening Efforts Offsetting Virus Surge.
• Commodities Reach New Highs on Rosy Oil-Demand Outlook.
• NYSE Eases Restrictions; U.S. Cases Slow: Virus Update.
• KKR Raises $18.5 Billion for Latest North America Buyout Fund.  
• NYSE Says More Staff Can Return to Trading Floor If Vaccinated.
• Corporate America Rides Wave of Inflation to Record Profits.  
• N.Y. Region to End Capacity Restrictions; All-Day Subway Returns.  
• Chipmaker Drop Clashes With Transport Stocks as Market Signals.  
• Treasury Quadruples Borrowing Estimates to Pay for Stimulus.

Wall Street Journal:

• Treasury Expects to Borrow $1.3 Trillion in Second Half of Fiscal 2021.
• Biden’s Stimulus for the IRS.
• Apple Accused of Monopolistic Practices in Trial.
• Auto Makers Retreat From 50 Years of ‘Just in Time’ Manufacturing.
• Next Generation of Covid-19 Vaccines Could Be a Pill or Spray.
• Lumber Prices Break Records.
• Youth Pay a High Price for Covid Protection.
• Biden’s Daycare Plan Is Bad for Families.

Fox News:

• NO FILTER: Children give Biden brutally honest answers when asked about virtual learning.
• Most Portland riot suspects will not be prosecuted: US attorney.
  

CNBC.com:

• Fed’s Barkin sees higher inflation this year, but then a reversal in 2022.
• Stocks making biggest moves after the bell: Under Armour, Mosaic, XPO Logistics.
• Wealthy may face up to 61% tax rate on inherited wealth under Biden plan.
• Jim Cramer says these outdoor plays are a buy as the economy reopens.
• FDA expected to approve Pfizer Covid vaccine for teens within the week.
• Florida Gov. DeSantis suspends Covid restrictions: ‘We are no longer in a state of emergency’.
• Some couples may face a ‘marriage penalty’ under Biden’s tax plan.

MarketWatch.com:      

• The stock market is ‘inching toward euphoria,’ warn analysts at B. of A.  
• The world risks ‘running out of copper’ — and here’s how high prices may rise as the economy reopens, BofA warns.

Zero Hedge:

• Liquidity Tsunami Ends With A Bang: Treasury Expects Just $100BN In Cash Injections Next 2 Months.
• JPM: Biden's Infra Bill Faces Enough Dem Opposition That It Will Be Materially Lower Than $4 Trillion. 
• Tanker Truck Driver Shortage May Fuel Higher Gas Prices This Summer.
• States Offer Beer, Cash Incentives As Vaccine Demand Softens.
• Bill And Melinda Gates Getting Divorce.
• The Supreme Court Case That Could Change Everything For US Pipelines.
• Peruvian Presidential Front-Runner Says He'll Seize 70% Of Profits From Overseas Businesses.
• Biden Tells Mossad Chief US 'Not Close' To Deal While Iran Says Sanctions About To Be Lifted.
• Here Are The Best Performing Assets In April And YTD.
• Vaccine Passports Are Coming To Sports Venues.
• Biden Hikes Refugee Admission Cap To 62,500 After Outcry From Progressives.
• Crypto & Gold Jump As Dollar Dumps, Stocks & Bonds Rise.

Newsmax:

• Climate Czar John Kerry Raked in Millions from Energy Sector Before Taking Job. 
• Harris Slammed for Neglecting Border Crisis.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• EXCLUSIVE: Spy Plane Identified Circling the Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum Where the Election Audit Is Taking Place – What’s Going On?
• More Democrat Insanity: Green New Deal Mastermind Claims Saving the Planet Requires Eliminating Police and Changing Power Relationships.
•  n Effort to Bypass Spy Warrants, Biden Admin to Partner with Private Firms to Surveil So-Called ‘Domestic Terrorists’ Online.
• President Trump Releases EXPLOSIVE Message: “The Fraudulent Presidential Election of 2020 will be, From this day forth, Known as THE BIG LIE!”.

The Epoch Times:

• Evidence Reveals That Military Team Collaborated With Lab Where COVID-19 Pandemic Originated.
• TSMC’s Plan to Boost Chip Production in Chinese Factory Met With Opposition.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.75 -1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 36.0 -1.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.80 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,150.0 +1.0 point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.61 +.27%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.35%.

• S&P 500 futures -.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.25%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BG)/1.48
• (COP)/.48
• (CMI)/3.51
• (CVS)/1.71
• (D)/1.05
• (DD)/.76
• (ETN)/1.22
• (EXPD)1.02
• (FSS)/.34
• (GPN)/1.79
• (IDXX)/1.72
• (LDOS)/1.47
• (LPX)/2.60
• (MLM)/.55
• (PFE)/.78
• (SAGE)/-1.63
• (SEE)/.72
• (SYY)/.21
• (UAA)/.04
• (VSH)/.38
• (VMC)/.45
• (ZBH)/1.52
  

After the Close:

• (ATVI)/.70
• (AKAM)/1.30
• (ANET)/2.38
• (CZR)/-1.74
• (COHR)/1.14
• (HLF)/1.09
• (HST)/-.15
• (H)/-1.29
• (JAZZ)/3.65
• (LSCC)/.19
• (LYFT)/-.55
• (PKI)/3.01
• (PAA)/.26
• (PRU)/2.65
• (VECO)/.23
• (XLNX)/.78
• (ZG)/.25
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for March is estimated to widen to -$74.4B versus -$71.1B in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for March is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a -.8% decline in Feb.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for March is estimated to rise +1.8% versus a -.6% decline in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US weekly retail sales reports, Truist Life Sciences Summit, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference, (F) April sales release, (MYGN) investor day and the (UNP) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, More Dovish Fed Commentary, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.4 -1.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,151.0 +38.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.03 +.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.5 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.6 -2.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +29.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .73 -23.2%

• NYSE Arms .98 -36.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.23 -.36%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 436.97 -.22%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.31 -.26%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.59 -1.96%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 169.35 +1.46%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.37 +.2%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 unch.

• TED Spread 17.5 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  61.75 +1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.87 +.19%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 148.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 183.36 USD/Metric Tonne +3.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.8 -16.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 158.6 -6.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 55.7 +5.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +1.0 basis point
• 89.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 89.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +313 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -154 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/energy/medical sector longs sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.2% 2) Internet -1.6% 3) Social Media -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AVIR, EL and NVAX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CFX 2) CNK 3) COUP 4) AHT 5) CVS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FLDR 2) PLUG 3) CAN 4) XL 5) RMO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +5.1% 2) Oil Service +4.6% 3) Gold & Silver +4.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BTX, OCGN, GTN, GNK, SRPT, MHK, GPS, BZH, PI, AIMC, SCHN, ETH, MDP, CWK, FDX, MRNA, UPS and ARQT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AHT 2) CNK 3) IRBT 4) SMH 5) TWTR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OCGN 2) GPS 3) BKR 4) MHK 5) SRPT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 66.4% of Issues Advancing, 30.5% Declining
• 282 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 88.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,140.0 +27.0 points
• Vix 18.4 -1.0%
• Total Put/Call .80 -15.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 -32.7%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• China Deletes Social Media Posts Mocking India Amid Backlash.  
• China Leverage Ratio Falls as Government Tries to Rein in Risks.  
• Australia Central Bank to Keep Stimulus Even as Economy Roars.
  
• Hong Kong’s Economy Set to Bounce Back After Long Decline.
• Australia’s Housing Boom Shows Signs of Slowing.
• U.S. Seeks Expanded Access in Global Vaccine Talks: Virus Update.  
• Stocks to Drift Lower in Asia; U.S. Futures Rise: Markets Wrap.
• Rich Americans Fleeing Tax Hikes May Turbocharge Shift to ETFs.
• Your Weekend Reading: Inside India’s Terrible Fight Against Covid-19.  
• Intel CEO Says Chip Shortage Will Persist for ‘Couple of Years’.  
• Lumber Extends Record Rally With Order Surge Straining Sawmills.
• Francisco Partners, TPG Agree to Buy Dell’s Boomi for $4 Billion.  
• U.S. Plastic Surgeons Expect Boom in Procedures Below Zoom Line.  
• Record Metals Prices Catapult Mining Profits Beyond Big Oil.

Wall Street Journal:

• Americans Can’t Get Enough of Stocks.
• Capital Gains and Tax ‘Fairness’.
• U.S. Companies Scramble to Meet Surge in Demand.
• Sorry, Professor, We’re Cutting You Off.
• Litigation Without End: Chevron Battles On in 28-Year-Old Lawsuit.
• Biden, Republicans Set Talks Over Competing Infrastructure Plans.
• A Tech Company Tried to Limit What Employees Talk About. It Didn’t Go Well.
• India’s Covid Calamity Has Sick Caring for the Sicker.
• For China’s Small Businesses, Life Is Still Far From Normal.

Fox News:

• Life-or-death scenario plays out in front of horrified beachgoers after boat packed with illegals capsizes. 
  
• Tim Scott slams 'Uncle Tim' label as hypocritical bigotry.

CNBC:  

• NYC indoor dining to increase to 75% in May, full reopening set for July.
• Verizon is considering selling the remnants of AOL and Yahoo — here are the most valuable pieces.
• Covid cases fall sharply in U.S., Gottlieb calls vaccination campaign ‘monumental achievement’.
• Warren Buffett says Robinhood is catering to the gambling instincts of investors.
• Wall Street’s top analysts recommend these buy-rated stocks as earnings season rolls on.
• Audiences for award shows are in steep decline. This chart shows how far viewership has fallen.

Zero Hedge: 

• We Are At The Early Stage Of The Biggest Cobra Effect In The History Of Economics.
• 'Follow The Science' Fallacy Exposed - Teachers Union Exerted Influence Over CDC School Reopening Guidelines.
• Boeing Fires 65 Employees, Disciplines 53 More For 'Racist And Hateful Conduct' Following George Floyd Death.
• Watch: Mitt Romney Raucously Booed At Utah Republican Party’s Organizing Convention.
• You Know It's Bad When... CNN Calls Out Biden Over Anti-Science Mask Use.
• "This Time Is Indeed Different" - Why Morgan Stanley Sees No Housing Bubble.
• "The Costs Are Up, Up, Up. We're Seeing Substantial Inflation" Admits A Surprised Warren Buffett As Powell, Yellen See Nothing.
• $70,000 For A Part-Time Driver.
• Safe Spaces Are Creating A Generation Of "Snowflake Tyrants": Dr. Everett Piper.
• 'Work-From-Home' To Dent Spending In Large Cities By Up To 10%, Study Says.
• Ron Paul: No, Conservatives Should Not Embrace MMT.
• NYT, Washington Post, NBC Retract Incorrect Reporting On Giuliani's Contact With FBI.
• "I Just Wanted A Little More Time" - Texas Nurse Was Fired For Refusing COVID Vaccine.
• Niall Ferguson: How Ike's 1950s America Beat The 'Asian Flu' With Science & Common Sense.
• Russia, Iran, & A SWIFT Nuclear First Strike.
• North Korea Slams "Intolerable" Biden Comments, Lashes Out At "Human Wastes" In South Korea.
• Majority Of French Agree With Military Generals That Nation Is Nearing "Civil War", New Poll Finds.
• The State Of The Third COVID Wave In Europe.
• Hedge Fund CIO: "Biden Is Betting The Voters That Brought Trump To Power Can Be Bought".
• Connecticut Ends Religious Vaccine Exemptions For Students.
• How Costco Is Masking A 14% Price Jump With Shrinkflation.

MarketWatch.com:   

• Apple v. Epic: What to expect from a trial that could change antitrust law and the mobile-app ecosystem.
  
• Charlie Munger says bitcoin’s rise ‘disgusting and contrary to interests of civilization'.
  

NewsMax:    

• Texas Gov. Abbott: Biden's First 100 Days 'Great' For Cartels, Gangs, Human Traffickers.
• Ex-Trump Economist Moore: Economy Is Recovering, We Don't Need Blizzard of Spending.
• Biden Preparing for Food Stamp Increase Without Congress. 
• Larry Kudlow: Biden Big Govt Push 'Devastatingly Bad'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BLM-Antifa Rioters Target Upscale Restaurant in Louisville, Kentucky, At Least One Protester Is Armed! – Restaurant Patron Pulls a Pistol! (VIDEO).
• California to Release 63,000 Violent and Repeat Felons Back Onto Streets to Create “Safer Prisons”.
• JUST IN: 2 Dead, 23 Injured After Suspected Smuggling Boat Capsizes Off San Diego Coast (VIDEO).
• MIRACLE! FOX News Covers Election Fraud! — TX AG Ken Paxton Describes How Cheating Democrats Almost Stole Texas in 2020 Like Georgia (VIDEO).
• “There Is Something Fishy on the Final Census Results – There Should Be an Investigation or Litigation” – TX Gov. Greg Abbott Weighs in On Shocking Census Numbers (VIDEO).
• HUGE: Arizona GOP Leader Kelli Ward Sounds the Alarm – Dem Secretary of State Hobbs Is Sneaking Dem Operatives from Biased Orgs into Maricopa County Audit.
• Portland Rioters Take Their Turn Celebrating May Day As They Smash Up What’s Left Of Downtown.
• Tucker Carlson Blasts Republican Party For Taking Advice From Pollster Frank Luntz (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Companies Hold Record IPOs in US, Despite Tensions.
• Chinese Leader Xi Jinping Lays out Plan to Control the Global Internet: Leaked Documents.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.25 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 37.25 -.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.67 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,116.0 +4.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 -1.08%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.33%.
• S&P 500 futures +.41%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/4.21
• (EL)/1.28
• (ITRI)/.43
• (ON)/.33
• (PETS)/.40
  

After the Close:

• (CAR)/-2.49
• (CHGG)/.30
• (FANG)/1.26
• (IRBT)/.09
• (LTHM)/.01
• (MOS)/.48
• (RIG)/-.17
• (VAR)/1.18
• (VNO)/.67
• (XPO)/.99
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.7% versus a -.8% decline in Feb.
• ISM Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to 65.0 versus 64.7 in March.
• ISM Prices Paid for April is estimated to rise to 86.1 versus 85.6 in March.
  

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for April is estimated to fall to 17.5M versus 17.75M in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The RBA rate decision, Eurozone PMI report, (PSA) investor day and the (MRK) investor day could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.