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Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Plunging Oil is Offsetting Profit-taking Ahead of Earnings Season
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Airline longs, Computer longs and Commodity shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is above average. Oil is falling another $2.04, to $50.95. OPEC's recent actions and comments lead me to conclude that OPEC has come to the realization, which I have been pointing out for several months, that it needs lower oil prices to try and prevent any further long-term demand destruction and loss of market share. As well, The Guardian is reporting that Iran's President is facing increasing hostility toward his policies. In an unprecedented rebuke, 150 members of the Iranian parliament signed a letter criticizing his recent actions. I am not hearing many talk about this, but it could be another one of the many reasons for the extreme weakness in oil. Energy-related stocks were investors' favorite sector coming into the new year. This has likely resulted in even greater portfolio manager underperformance this year as most energy shares are down 7%-10% already. In my opinion, it is not too late to sell these shares as the recent plunge in prices and very likely further oil price declines are not factored into the stocks at current levels. As I cautioned many times last year, commodity stocks look the cheapest on a valuation basis when they are at their most dangerous. If I were substantially behind the major averages this year due to the decline in commodity stocks, I would cut that weighting now and add more growth stock exposure as I think that growth stock outperformance through year-end will be significant. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, more economic optimism and bargain-hunting.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil is plunging another $2.14/bbl. to a 19-month low of $50.86/bbl. in NY after Saudi Arabia’s oil minister rejected calls for more production cuts.
- Benon Sevan, who ran the corruption-riddled UN/Iraq Oil-for-food program, was indicted in the US for allegedly accepting $160,000 in bribes to help former dictator Saddam Hussein’s regime, the 14th person charged in the oil-for-food scandal.
- Landry’s Restaurants(LNY) offered to buy Smith & Wollensky Restaurant Group for $64.4 million to increase the number of upscale locations it operates.
- Centex Corp.(CTX) and KB Home(KBH) said quarterly earnings were depressed by $800 million in costs to write off the value of land and abandon options to buy more property.
- Symantec(SYMC) said third-quarter profit and sales missed its forecast, citing its data management unit.
- Copper prices in NY fell for the third session in a row on speculation demand will lag behind supplies with global inventories of the metal close to the highest since July 2004.
- US railroads will get new rules by 2008 for redesigning tank cars to keep chemicals from leaking during an accident.
- Shares of OMI Inc.(OMM) and General Maritime(GMR), the second and third-biggest US oil tanker operators, were downgraded by Cantor Fitzgerald LP, which said lower OPEC shipments and growth in vessel fleets will hurt profit.
Wall Street Journal:
- Janus Friis and Niklas Zennstrom, founders of Skype Technologies SA, are supporting an online broadband video company called Joost that could let viewers watch professional video on personal computers with better quality.
- US retailers are encouraging customers to switch from credit cards to debit cards with lower processing fees.
- Smaller US companies with proven ability to make steady progress no matter what the state of the economy are attracting interest from mutual-fund managers.
NY Post:
- Google’s(GOOG) YouTube unit has started carrying commodities trading advice from a former New York Merc silver trader.
The Guardian:
- More than half of Iran’s parliament signed a letter criticizing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s performance on the economy. The signatories also criticized Ahmadinejad’s stance on the international dispute over Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is losing patience with Ahmadinejad. “There is a probability that he cannot even finish his current four-year period,” said Eesa Scharkhiz, an Iranian political commentator.
Handelsblatt:
- Chemical makers worldwide may see slower earnings and sales growth and narrower profit margins this year, citing analysts at rating companies including S&P and Fitch.
Interfax:
- Russia has completed the delivery of new surface-to-air missile systems to Iran, citing Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov.
Expansion:
- Billionaire investor George Soros said it doesn’t make sense to imagine a future in which the euro replaces the US dollar as the global currency of reference.
Jerusalem Post:
- Intel Corp.(INTC), the word’s largest computer-chip maker, may enter a joint venture with STMicroelectronics NV and a private investor that will reorganize its flash memory division.
- Crude oil is plunging another $2.14/bbl. to a 19-month low of $50.86/bbl. in NY after Saudi Arabia’s oil minister rejected calls for more production cuts.
- Benon Sevan, who ran the corruption-riddled UN/Iraq Oil-for-food program, was indicted in the US for allegedly accepting $160,000 in bribes to help former dictator Saddam Hussein’s regime, the 14th person charged in the oil-for-food scandal.
- Landry’s Restaurants(LNY) offered to buy Smith & Wollensky Restaurant Group for $64.4 million to increase the number of upscale locations it operates.
- Centex Corp.(CTX) and KB Home(KBH) said quarterly earnings were depressed by $800 million in costs to write off the value of land and abandon options to buy more property.
- Symantec(SYMC) said third-quarter profit and sales missed its forecast, citing its data management unit.
- Copper prices in NY fell for the third session in a row on speculation demand will lag behind supplies with global inventories of the metal close to the highest since July 2004.
- US railroads will get new rules by 2008 for redesigning tank cars to keep chemicals from leaking during an accident.
- Shares of OMI Inc.(OMM) and General Maritime(GMR), the second and third-biggest US oil tanker operators, were downgraded by Cantor Fitzgerald LP, which said lower OPEC shipments and growth in vessel fleets will hurt profit.
Wall Street Journal:
- Janus Friis and Niklas Zennstrom, founders of Skype Technologies SA, are supporting an online broadband video company called Joost that could let viewers watch professional video on personal computers with better quality.
- US retailers are encouraging customers to switch from credit cards to debit cards with lower processing fees.
- Smaller US companies with proven ability to make steady progress no matter what the state of the economy are attracting interest from mutual-fund managers.
NY Post:
- Google’s(GOOG) YouTube unit has started carrying commodities trading advice from a former New York Merc silver trader.
The Guardian:
- More than half of Iran’s parliament signed a letter criticizing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s performance on the economy. The signatories also criticized Ahmadinejad’s stance on the international dispute over Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is losing patience with Ahmadinejad. “There is a probability that he cannot even finish his current four-year period,” said Eesa Scharkhiz, an Iranian political commentator.
Handelsblatt:
- Chemical makers worldwide may see slower earnings and sales growth and narrower profit margins this year, citing analysts at rating companies including S&P and Fitch.
Interfax:
- Russia has completed the delivery of new surface-to-air missile systems to Iran, citing Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov.
Expansion:
- Billionaire investor George Soros said it doesn’t make sense to imagine a future in which the euro replaces the US dollar as the global currency of reference.
Jerusalem Post:
- Intel Corp.(INTC), the word’s largest computer-chip maker, may enter a joint venture with STMicroelectronics NV and a private investor that will reorganize its flash memory division.
New York Manufacturing Decelerates
- The Empire Manufacturing Index for January fell to 9.1 versus estimates of 19.3 and a reading of 22.2 in December.
BOTTOM LINE: Manufacturing growth in NY state slowed more than forecast this month as new orders and sales deteriorated, Bloomberg said. The Outlook component of the index fell to 32.5 from 41.9 in December. The New Orders component fell to 10.3 versus 22.5 in December. The Employment component fell to 6.9 versus 18.6 in December. The Prices Paid component bounced back to 35.1 from 28.1 the prior month. I continue to believe manufacturing will improve modestly later this year as auto production cutbacks subside and housing continues to stabilize at relatively high levels.
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