Wednesday, April 25, 2007

***Alert***

Blogging will be light over the next few days due to a scheduling conflict. Sorry for the inconvenience and thanks for reading.

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- New Zealand’s central bank raised the benchmark interest rate to a record 7.75%, the second increase in seven weeks.
- Nigeria’s president-elect Umaru Yar-Adua said he’s ready to run in fresh elections if the courts annul his victory in the April 21 polls because of fraud.
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) said second-quarter profit rose 88% after demand soared for its iPod media players and Macintosh computers. The company’s shares surged 6.3% in extended trading.
- Congress can limit violent television programming without violating the free-speech rights of broadcasters, according to an FCC report.
- The House of Representatives approved a war spending bill tonight that requires US troops to withdraw from Iraq, beginning Oct. 1.

Dow Jones:
- The International Monetary Fund is more closely monitoring the impact of yen carry trades on markets in developing countries and may raise the issue in annual talks with some countries.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
HSBC:
- Rated (URBN), (ANN), (ANF) Overweight.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.38%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (MMM)/1.11
- (AET)/.77
- (DOX)/.50
- (AMT)/.06
- (APA)/1.60
- (APPB)/.33
- (AN)/.40
- (AVID)/.20
- (BIDU)/.37
- (BZH)/.12
- (BYD)/.53
- (BMY)/.23
- (BRCM)/.27
- (CAH)/.91
- (CCU)/.15
- (CMCSA)/.17
- (CFC)/.79
- (DECK)/.51
- (DO)/1.47
- (DRIV)/.53
- (DOW)/1.00
- (XOM)/1.52
- (FII)/.50
- (FLEX)/.19
- (F)/-.60
- (FO)/.86
- (HAL)/.52
- (IMCL)/.32
- (IM)/.39
- (KLAC)/.78
- (LVLT)/-.22
- (MBI)/1.47
- (MFE)/.33
- (MDC)/-.24
- (WFR)/.69
- (MCHP)/.34
- (MSFT)/.46
- (MNST)/.34
- (NEM)/.24
- (NYX)/.50
- (ODP)/.59
- (SNDK)/.17
- (SOHU)/.17
- (HOT)/.38
- (TDW)/1.46
- (VLO)/1.82
- (WDC)/.47
- (XMSR)/-.39
- (ZOLL)/.14

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 330K versus 339K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2523K versus 2531K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

DJIA Soars to Another Record, Surpassing 13,000 on Positive Earnings and Economic Data

Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

DJIA Surging Past 13,000, Hitting Another Record High, on Strong Earnings and Economic Reports

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Telecom longs, Computer longs and Medical longs. I added to my Google(GOOG) long and to an existing short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is heavy. I continue to believe that Google is egregiously undervalued at current levels relative to the broad market and its Internet peers. I am shocked that I am able to buy the shares again at current levels after GOOG's recent report. I still expect GOOG to exceed $600 this year on multiple expansion and better-than-expected earnings. The stock remains my largest long position. Yesterday after the close, Bloomberg reported that Nasdaq short interest surged 1.7% to 8,010,000,000 shares, from mid-March through mid-April, hitting another all-time high. Moreover, like the NYSE, the last two months has seen Nasdaq short interest soar 13.8%, the largest two-month percentage increase since at least 1991. Here are the 20 Nasdaq stocks with the largest percentage increase in their short interest relative to their float from mid-March through mid-April:

1) USNA +32.9%
2) HCBK +25.5%
3) HINT +23.4%
4) HLYS +19.1%
5) HERO +18.7%
6) ASTI +18.0%
7) DVSA +15.9%
8) DHOM +14.2%
9) CLWT +13.7%
10) CONN +9.4%
11) BLDR +9.0%
12) NRMX +8.4%
14) PONR +8.0%
15) CBRL +7.5%
16) DAKT +6.8%
17) PRAA +6.5%
18) LHCG +6.5%
19) NUVO +6.4%
20) TECUA +6.2%

Here are the 20 S&P 500 stocks with the largest percentage increase in their short interest relative to their float from mid-March through mid-April:

1) WEN +13.0%
2) KBH +6.9%
3) HAL +5.4%
4) MOT +4.3%
5) BEN +4.0%
6) CTX +3.5%
7) JNY +3.1%
8) DHI +2.8%
9) CIEN +2.8%
10) X +2.7%
11) ED +2.5%
12) RSH +2.5%
13) MCO +2.4%
14) CHK +2.4%
15) STZ +2.4%
16) CC +2.2%
17) HRB +2.1%
18) AVB +2.0%
19) MTG +1.7%
20) MAS +1.7%

I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on positive earnings reports, short-covering, positive economic data and stable long-term rates.